Minor candidates may worry Gore

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

NEW YORK, JULY 9. Even as the Vice-President, Mr. Albert Gore Jr, is busy trying to gather the traditional Democratic vote and coming up with a platform that has something in it for all - especially for the left-of-centre Democrats - some real questions are being posed by analysts and political operatives. And somewhere in the top of that list is whether the candidate of the Green Party, Mr. Ralph Nader, draw enough votes away from the Democrats to put Mr. George W. Bush in the White House.

That scenario is not a wild one by any stretch of imagination. After all, even today pundits are asking whether the Reform Party did just that to the Texas Governor's father, the Senior George Bush in 1992. And if today's regional polls are anything to go by, Mr. Gore does seem to have a real problem, especially in the States of the West and the Mid-West.

On a one-on-one match up in the State of Michigan, Mr. Gore and Mr. Bush are about even, but when Mr. Nader and Mr. Patrick Buchanan of the Reform Party are added to the polling list, the results are quite dramatic and startling. Mr. Bush comes away with a 12-point lead in a four-way tussle with 46 per cent, followed by Mr. Gore at 34 per cent, Mr. Nader 8 per cent and Mr. Buchanan 3 per cent. What is being pointed out is that in May, Mr. Bush and Mr. Gore were very close in Michigan and the Democratic Party has pumped at least $ 1 million in advertisements to boost their candidate's image.

Mr. Nader poses a problem not only in the Mid-West but also in the West, in States like California, Oregon and Washington. Although Mr. Gore has been seen consistently as an environmentalist, his track record is being questioned by groups in these Western States who now seem to be leaning towards supporting Mr. Nader. In the Mid-West, the problem for Mr. Gore is the Labour who are very receptive to what the Green Party candidate has to say.

The AFL-CIO has thrown its weight behind Mr. Gore, but this has not stopped two powerful unions - the Teamsters and the United Auto Workers - from saying that their vote is not certain with the Vice-President. For political reasons, Mr. Gore waffled on the China Permanent Normal Trade Relations issue; and to make matters worse, brought in the former Commerce Secretary, Mr. William Daley, to run his national campaign. Mr. Daley is a staunch free trader.

If the polls on hand are anything to go by, the candidacy of Mr. Buchanan in the Reform Party is going to hurt the Republicans much less than what Mr. Nader could do to the Democrats. One argument could be is that by having Mr. Bill Bradley - the ``more'' left-of-centre person - actively campaigning for Mr. Gore, some of the problem could be taken care of. But then, other core and traditional support groups would have to be accommodated.

The draft Democratic Party platform intends to do just that - the document is not merely a rehash of what Mr. Gore stands for but has some particularly strong language on issues such as trade, workers rights and environmental protection.

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