A judicious move

THE INITIATIVE FOR peace in Jammu and Kashmir, triggered by the unilateral announcement of ceasefire by the Hizbul Mujahideen a few days ago, seems set on course, with the Government of India sending positive signals by extending a specific invitation to the militant outfit for talks, with a plea to come overground, and by suspending military operations against its cadres. More significant is that the Government has judiciously avoided tagging on to its talks offer the usual ``within the Constitutional framework'' condition, something that has been anathema to the militant groups. Whether or not this calculated move came as a response to the Hizbul chief, Syed Salahuddin's reported threat to revoke the ceasefire if the Government insisted on the conditionality, it does provide the much-needed leeway to the HM which had come under heavy fire from other insurgent groups, besides of course serving to demonstrate the Centre's readiness to respect their sensibilities. Given the by- no-means insignificant presence of hardcore terrorist elements controlled by such outfits as the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and the Lashkar-e-Taiba who have reacted sharply to the Hizbul's ceasefire move, any scaling down of anti-insurgency operations does carry an element of risk and the security forces undoubtedly have quite a task on hand. But there can be no question of avoiding that risk and missing the current opportunity to push for peace in the traumatised State.

The emerging scenario, sombre as it still remains, is not without its silver lining. Although initially the Pakistan-based militant organisations condemned the HM for its ceasefire declaration, calling it a ``sell-out'', some distinct signs of softening have been discernible in the stated positions of at least quite a few of them since then; the criticism is generally in the nature of expressing disapproval of and dissociating from the decision - it would be too much to expect anything like an endorsement of the HM's initiative. No less significant is that the All-Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC), an umbrella outfit of separatist groups which had dubbed the Hizbul move ``hasty'', has now welcomed the ``unconditional'' talks offer. In fact, now is the most opportune moment for the APHC to play its part, a leading part at that, in bolstering the peace process and this would require its leadership cementing the fissures within itself and projecting a cohesive policy line that will facilitate an enduring solution. Above all is the speculation - in the media and among the Pakistan watchers - of the Hizbul's ceasefire declaration having had the `blessings', even if tacit, of Gen. Pervez Musharraf. If that is the correct reading and if the message goes out, the jehadi elements are less than likely to make any determined attempt to scuttle the peace process, although there could be some high-profile subversive attacks by way of reaffirming their identity.

All this is not to say that the road to peace and freedom from terrorist violence in Jammu and Kashmir is going to be smooth. Far from it. Given the multiplicity of the militant groups operating in the Valley - each with its own agenda and loyalties - and the mind-boggling complexities the Kashmir problem has acquired historically, the path cannot but be bumpy and the journey arduous. The point is only that the overall atmospheric seems conducive, as never before, to a favourable turn, provided the key players make the right moves. Now that the Centre has set the ball rolling, one should expect the Hizbul to open the dialogue via the Home Secretary and the immediate task will necessarily have to be the laying down of ground rules for the ceasefire and settling the modalities of interaction. At the appropriate stage, the Vajpayee regime would have to come up with imaginatively calibrated confidence-building measures and, needless to say, that while formulating the package and during the negotiations, it would have to take into confidence the various segments of political opinion, not to speak of the democratically-elected government in Jammu and Kashmir.

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