A useful exercise

THE LATEST DELIBERATIONS of the Association of South East Asian Nations' Regional Forum (ARF) may not have dramatically gripped the imagination of the wider international community despite the recent emergence of certain multilateral issues with serious security implications across the globe. This does not, however, diminish the value of the meeting held in Bangkok. Surely, the usefulness of an annual exchange of ideas within the elite entity, whose diverse members are bound by their acknowledged geopolitical association with Southeast Asia, has been proved in the past itself, and this year's exercise is no exception. The latest arrival of North Korea on the ARF scene, as a participant capable of evoking mixed feelings among the 22 others which welcomed it for its immense relevance to the regional debate on nuclear security and missile non-proliferation, is an event that has set right a conspicuous imbalance which prevailed on the forum. The sensible theory, bandied about for several years so far, is that the ARF, as the only organised security-related dialogue-house spanning the Asia-Pacific zone, must bring into its fold all the countries that fall within the geopolitical footprint of the ASEAN as a collective institution. By this reckoning, it was obvious all along that North Korea, despite its image in certain Western quarters as a dangerous and reclusive entity, was worthy of being admitted to the ARF without any litmus test of strategic importance.

Although the green signal for Pyongyang's ARF membership was decided upon over two months ago, the exact timing of its formal entry at this juncture has been remarkable. The congruence of circumstances is notable - last month's truly historic summit between the leaders of the divided countries of the Korean peninsula and the periodic gasps of international worries over Pyongyang's perceived preference for building a missile arsenal of its own and exporting the knowhow to others, besides the latest move by the U.S. to accelerate the development of its own national missile defence (NMD) system by citing North Korea among others as `states of concern' warranting the policy option. In the event, some key members of the ARF, such as China and Russia, have sought to raise the stakes for any NMD-development and deployment by the U.S. Given, however, the limiting scope of the ARF as an institution without the authority to issue or execute any specific mandate with political or security implications, the latest exchange of views on this forum on the NMD or any other issue will remain just that.

The ARF's nod for North Korea's admission is of greater practical importance in a purely qualitative sense, though. When the ASEAN first recognised the utility of engaging China in a dialogue over economic and security issues, the association's move was variously seen by major powers as a naive act designed to appease an ambitious country or perhaps a move with some imaginative possibilities of `domesticating' a communist giant. The march of events on the ASEAN front has proved that the Southeast Asian states have not been the worse for that particular act of humouring China, while the continuing prevalence of disputes over the Spratlys cannot justifiably be blamed on the nexus between Beijing and this organisation. Viewed in this perspective, the ARF's gesture of accommodating North Korea may serve the international community well if it leads to a process of intense engagement with an entity that smarted until recently under a sense of alienation. Myanmar's admission to the ASEAN as also the ARF is another case. So, India, while heaving a sigh of relief that Pakistan has not been considered worthy of the ARF's colours so far, should look out for signs of a hard-sell of the idea that an act of the ASEAN engaging Islamabad can be a confidence- building measure in itself for stability over a wider area.

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