Khatami losing the battle for reform?

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), AUG 9. With the closure of the last liberal newspaper, Iranian conservatives have mounted an all-out effort to muzzle the voice of reform in the country. Pro-reform politicians have ample evidence that the majority of Iranians support them but if they were to opt for a confrontation on the streets they would play into the hands of the conservatives. At the rate at which avenues for democratic protest or change are being closed down, the pro-reform camp, especially the President, Mr. Mohammed Khatami will have to soon evolve a method of dealing with the conservative campaign.

Yesterday, the conservative-dominated judiciary closed down Bahar, the last newspaper espousing the pro-reform point of view. In justification, the judiciary said that the publishers had failed to heed past complaints and published ``fabricated stories and outright lies''. Other reports, however, suggest that the newspaper was closed down because it carried a statement by Mr. Mohammed Reza Khatami, the President's brother and the biggest winner in the February Parliamentary election, wherein he had criticised a recent directive by the Supreme Religious Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Through his directive, Mr. Khamenei had prevented Parliament from initiating any moves to repeal a restrictive press code enacted by the conservatives before they were deprived of their majority in the elections. Yet another senior journalist was taken into custody the day before.

Bahar was the 24th publication to be closed since the conservatives launched their crackdown in April. The most visible aspect of Mr. Khatami's reform programme has thus been shot down quickly. This does not necessarily mean that pro-reform news and opinions will not be disseminated at all since Iran has a tradition of what they call ``night journals'' publications which are produced and distributed clandestinely. But the open liberal atmosphere, which was swiftly overwhelming the country and adding its own momentum to the reform campaign, has been suppressed.

Although few Iranians read the pro-conservative press, the conservatives control radio and television and have been using them for partisan purposes. For instance, they have been giving prominent coverage to the demonstrations before Parliament mounted by anti-reform vigilantes. The demonstrators were dispersed after the Interior Ministry declared that they had not given permission for the rallies and the Ministry also castigated the electronic media for covering ``illegal rallies''. (Usually the State-run media is punctilious about not paying any attention to ``illegal activities''). In another demonstration of conservative brazenness, State radio blasted the Interior Ministry for imposing censorship.

Those demonstrating before the Parliament were reportedly mostly members of the Basij, the quasi-official militia which owes allegiance to conservatives entrenched in the Iranian establishment. The demonstrators accused the pro-reform majority in Parliament of being ``hypocrites'' and ``mercenaries'' who were trying to implement a ``U.S. agenda of reform''. Some reports said volunteers had even torn up portraits of the President, a person whom the conservatives were not confident enough to criticise till recently.

Even as the conservative campaign gets into full swing there has not been an adequate response from the reform camp. Some reform parliamentarians scuffled with conservative counterparts after Mr. Khamenei's directive on the press code was read out and the head of the committee that drafted the repeal Bill resigned from his post. But as yet there has been no discernible effort to mobilise the vast majority of pro-reform Iranians against the conservatives. One major problem the reform leadership faces is that the mobilisation of the people could prove counter- productive. In any large-scale mass action it would be difficult to exercise control.

If any future confrontation between pro and anti- reform demonstrators turns violent, the conservatives can use the pretext to mount a coup and thereby destroy whatever has been achieved by the reform campaign so far. Moreover, most reform leaders are not in favour of a total overthrow of the prevalent system either. They are aware that no one can foresee where a mass upsurge will take Iran. Perhaps the President is the only person who can square the circle. But he too will have to act soon.

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Section  : International
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