Ranil may find it tough to tackle Chandrika

By Nirupama Subramanian

COLOMBO, SEPT. 3. In France, they call it cohabitation and it works reasonably well. In the United States, except for the first two years of the President, Mr. Bill Clinton's first tenure when the Democrats enjoyed a majority in Congress, the President's party has not controlled the House of Representatives for several years. The question being asked in the run-up to the October 10 parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka is, what might be the consequences if it happens here?

If the United National Party (UNP) were to emerge victorious in the election, it would be the first time in Sri Lanka that the President's party would not be in control of Parliament, not counting the brief three months between August and November 1994, when Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga's People's Alliance (PA) government functioned along side the Presidency of Mr. D.B. Wijetunge of the UNP.

Already, the UNP leader, Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe, who has claimed that his party would win the elections, is painting post- poll scenarios in which he would not only form the Government, but also turn Ms. Kumaratunga into a lame duck President.

``When the UNP wins the majority in the coming election, the executive decisions will be made by me and the UNP Cabinet. After October 12, President Chandrika Kumaratunga will not be able to act independently,'' he declared at a press conference earlier this week. He said until such time as his Government brought in amendments to abolish the Executive Presidency, the President would have to act on the advice of Parliament and the Cabinet in accordance with the provisions in the 1978 Constitution that Sri Lanka now follows. The armed forces and the police would also have to take orders from the Cabinet and Parliament. Mr. Wickremesinghe's assertion is based on the power of Parliament to block the President's access to finances which, in turn, would prevent her from exercising her powers. The President has powers to dissolve Parliament, but not before a full year after it has been constituted.

But constitutional experts believe Mr. Wickremesinghe may not find it easy to clip the wings of the most powerful Executive President in the world. ``He is underestimating the powers of the President of Sri Lanka. Between Parliament and President, the balance of power is very much in favour of the President,'' said Mr. Rohan Edirisinghe of the University of Colombo Law Faculty.

And unlike Mr. Wijetunge, Ms. Kumaratunga is no pushover President. To begin with, the President may not even appoint Mr. Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister. Article 43 of the Constitution says the President can appoint as Prime Minister a Member of Parliament who ``in (her) opinion'' is most likely to command the confidence of the House.

``The President may decide, that in her opinion, Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe does not command the confidence of Parliament. She could appoint anyone she likes. It provides her with an opportunity to undermine his leadership of the UNP and create fissures in the party,'' said Mr. Edirisinghe.

Under the draconian provisions of the 1978 Constitution, the President is also empowered to assign to herself any Cabinet portfolio, with no limit on the number of portfolios she can hold, and thus considerably reduce the hold of the Prime Minister over the Cabinet.

Mr. Wickremesinghe quoted Article 42 of the Constitution to point out that the President ``shall be responsible to Parliament for the due exercise, performance and discharge of (her) powers, duties and functions''.

But the President is not answerable or accountable to Parliament. She need not attend sessions and enjoys immunity from being criticised in the House. Under the prevailing Emergency, the President may pass regulations that override laws enacted by Parliament. The House may vote against the Emergency when it comes up for the monthly extension, but the President could clamp it again for at least a month. With both the President and Parliament empowered to chip away at each other, and given the hostility between the PA and the UNP, cohabitation, French style, may not be possible. Indeed, Executive deadlock for at least a year is the most likely scenario if the UNP wins the elections.

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