Gore takes 10 p.c. lead over Bush

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

NEW YORK, SEPT. 3. If the conventional thinking about the importance of Labour Day weekend is anything to go by, the Gore campaign has every reason to be smiling. The Vice-President, Mr. Albert Gore Jr, is not only posting a 10 percentage point lead over the Texas Governor, Mr. George W. Bush, on a national level, but is pulling ahead in many States that are seen as crucial for a win on November 7.

The latest poll shows Mr. Gore having a national approval rating of 49 per cent as opposed to 39 per cent for Mr. Bush with Mr. Ralph Nader of the Green Party getting 3 percentage points and the Reform Party candidate, Mr. Patrick Buchanan, barely making it with one per cent. What is seen as more critical is that Mr. Gore is widening the lead in States such as Iowa and Vermont.

Polls show the Vice-President pulling ahead by 20 points among women voters; and about even with the men and independent voters. Not too long ago opinion surveys were showing Mr. Bush placed strongly with men voters, especially the white- male voter; improving his standing among women and a slight advantage in the realm of the independent voters.

One estimate has it that if the election were to be held today, Mr. Gore would have the support of at least 14 States and the District of Colombia amounting to 201 electoral college votes, or 69 short of the 270 votes needed for a victory. On the other hand, Mr. Bush has the backing of 22 States for a total electoral college vote of 179.

Labour Day - September 4 - is the formal kick-off point for the last stage of the presidential campaign with both candidates rolling up their sleeves and getting down to serious business. With about eight weeks to go for the November 7 showdown, both Mr. Bush and Mr. Gore would not only have to ensure that the big States are with them but also battle it out for the key States in the Mid-West and the swing States.

By one reckoning, Mr. Gore would have to have California with the highest electoral catch of 54 votes; and while this major western State not fit firmly in the bag, polls show Mr. Gore ahead.

The Bush campaign is saying for the record that it is going to put up a stiff fight in California, but privately it is felt that it has been conceded. In any event, the Bush campaign would now have to decide whether or not to stretch its resources in this State or throw time and money elsewhere.

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Section  : International
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