China's multi-pronged strategy to counter separatism in Xinjiang

By Atul Aneja

URUMQI (WESTERN CHINA), SEPT. 15. Apprehending the rise of separatism in its sensitive border province of Xinjiang, China has launched a multi-pronged counter-campaign.

The threat of separatism comes mainly from a section of the 70- lakh Ughyurs who comprise the largest, single, ethnic group in the Xinjiang province. The Ughyurs are concentrated in large numbers in Kashgar, the base from where Islam spread south of the Pamir. Other Ughyur strongholds are Hotan, south-east of Kashgar along with Turpan and Hami which are located further to the east.

The Ughyur population is, however, not overwhelmingly high in Xinjiang. Han Chinese from mainland China have settled here in large numbers, comprising nearly 38 per cent of Xinjiang's population of over one-and-a-half crores.

Rumblings among the Ughyurs acquired prominence after the reported crackdown on its demonstrators in February 1997 in the Ili district, not far from Xinjiang's Central Asian border with Kazakhstan.

High strategic stakes are driving China to aggressively counter ``splittist tendencies'' in this area. Given Xinjiang's unique strategic location because it borders eight other countries, any advance in separatism can threaten to de- link China from Central Asia and large parts of South Asia. China, therefore can hardly be expected to sit back and accept the unlikely possibility of Xinjiang's emergence as a buffer State between itself and Central Asia in the future.

In addition, it is keen to further consolidate its position in Xinjiang because the region is likely to emerge as an economic powerhouse in the future. Besides its other resources , Xinjiang has huge reserves of oil and gas whose exploitation has only recently begun. According to official Chinese statistics, Xinjiang's oil reserves, concentrated in the arid Tarim and Jungaar basins stand at around 20.8 billion tonnes, while its stocks of natural gas are estimated at 10.3 billion cubic meters. Xinjiang therefore acquires pre-eminence in China's future plans for acquiring energy security.

China is also looking to reinforcing Xinjiang's greater integration on internal political considerations. For instance, consolidation in Xinjiang would send the right kind of signals for integration to Tibet and other restive quarters in China.

Aware of the high stakes involved, China has started moving simultaneously on several tracks to turn around Xinjiang. First, the region, is being loaded with economic development. Xinjiang, according to officials, is likely to witness an investment of over $ 60 billion on a variety of infrastructure projects in the coming decade, including the construction of the 4167 Kms.-long oil pipeline from the Tarim basin to eastern China's energy- hungry hub of Shanghai.

Besides, China is launching an ambitious drive to build highways within the region and launch rail-road projects to encourage border trade towards Uzbekistan via Kyrghyzstan in Central Asia.

By launching an ambitious economic plan, China is hoping to bring under its fold, a large number of economically deprived Ughyurs who otherwise might go the separatist way. In fact, analysts point out that economic development is also part of a sophisticated strategy to split the hardliners among the Ughyurs from the rest of the community whose stridency might have been driven by economic needs.

In other words, Chinese authorities are keen to drive a wedge between the ``nationalist'' Ughyurs and the ideologically-driven pan-Islamic hardliners, some of whom have been reportedly trained in neighbouring Afghanistan.

Not surprisingly the Chinese State is likely to crackdown especially hard on the pan-Islamic ``Jehadis'' in the coming days. Active diplomacy is also likely to reinforce this assault. Beijing is reportedly engaging Pakistan, over which it exercises enormous leverage, to turn the heat on the Afghanistan- based ``jehadis.'' Besides, Chinese officials acknowledge that they have begun direct dialogue with the Taliban authorities. They are also actively engaging Central Asian Governments in order to deny separatists any cross-border sanctuaries.

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Section  : International
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