Putin playing the Pakistan card?

By C. Raja Mohan

MOSCOW, SEPT. 28. In choosing to be the first Soviet or Russian supremo ever to visit Pakistan, President Vladimir Putin has set in motion a new phase in the Russian policy towards the subcontinent. The move could begin to unfreeze the historically one-sided Russian engagement of the archrivals in the subcontinent, India and Pakistan.

In the last few days, the Russian media reports suggested that the recent visit to Pakistan by President Putin's special envoy, Mr. Sergey Yastrzhembsky, was not just about taking up the issue of terrorism which is of great concern to Russia now, but the first step towards a serious dialogue with Pakistan.

Informed sources here say that the emerging thaw between Russia and Pakistan is unlikely to affect the depth and intensity of Indo-Russian cooperation, which will be marked with some fanfare next week when President Putin arrives in India. But there is no question that the international relations of the subcontinent are on the verge of a major transformation. The rapprochement between India and the United States, that was long the ally of Pakistan, is now being followed by a cautious overture by Russia, India's historic partner, towards Pakistan.

And the vortex that is shaping the new fluidity in South Asia is Afghanistan. As the Taliban forces, backed by Pakistan, begin to consolidate their recent military gains in northern Afghanistan, a new great game with significant consequences is likely to unfold.

President Putin's decision to dispatch a special envoy to Pakistan just days before arriving in India, will inevitably lead to some speculation in New Delhi about the changing direction of Russian policy towards the subcontinent. But there is confidence on the Indian side that the Indo-Russian relations are strong enough to withstand the new moves between Russia and Pakistan.

The Russian Government is believed to have formally briefed the Indian side on Mr. Yastrzhembsky's visit to Pakistan both before and after the event. Mr.Yastrzhembsky's announcement in Islamabad yesterday that Pakistan had invited President Putin to visit Pakistan and that the Russian leader had accepted it followed a month of intensive diplomatic pas de deux over the last month. The Pakistani Chief Executive, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, had gone to great lengths at the United Nations to arrange a meeting with Mr. Putin, and since then the chief of Pakistani intelligence had visited Moscow.

The new Russian engagement with Pakistan appears to be aimed at coping with the challenge from extremism and terrorism that Russia faces on its own territory, particularly in Chechnya, as well as in Central Asia which is part of Russia's extended security perimeter. Mr. Yastrzhembsky is President Putin's assistant on matters relating to Chechnya. Russia had in the past been a vocal critic of Pakistan's support for terrorism and Mr. Yastrzehmbsky had publicly threatened to bomb terrorist camps in Afghanistan.

But now, as the Taliban senses total victory in Afghanistan, and the Central Asian States get nervous about their own stability, engaging Pakistan has become a major imperative for the security planners in the Kremlin, sources here say. In return for Pakistani cooperation on controlling the extremists and terrorists operating in Chechnya, Russia appears to be offering an improved relationship with Islamabad.

There will be some concern in India that Pakistan's blackmail tactics are beginning to work in Moscow, and it will use the promise of controlling the extremist groups to extract political concessions from Russia in the subcontinent.

President Putin is playing hard ball by insisting that his visit is contingent upon Pakistan's actions on the ground to help Moscow combat terrorism. India will closely watch the bargaining that has begun between Moscow and Islamabad.

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Section  : International
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