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Pressure by Moscow turned the tide?

By Vladimir Radyuhin

MOSCOW, OCT. 7. In a dramatic turnaround Moscow intervened in the Yugoslav crisis, recognising Mr. Vojislav Kostunica as the country's new leader and persuading the President, Mr. Slobodan Milosevic, to step down without a fight.

During his blitz visit to Belgrade on Friday, the Russian Foreign Minister, Mr. Igor Ivanov, congratulated Mr. Kostunica on his election victory and handed in a message from the Russian President, Mr. Vladimir Putin, which left no doubt that Russia recognised the victory of the Serb Opposition leader.

For two weeks after the Presidential elections in Yugoslavia, Moscow had carefully avoided taking sides, insisting on the need for a run-off vote and saying that only Yugoslav courts could declare a winner. The Kremlin's fence-sitting stand came in for strong criticism from Russian media and analysts, who said Moscow was losing its last chance to retain influence in the Balkans.

However, after returning to Moscow from India the Russian President swiftly dispatched his Foreign Minister to Belgrade with a letter of congratulations to Mr. Kostunica. ``I hope that you as the leader of the democratic forces in Yugoslavia, who has assumed responsibility for the future of the fraternal Yugoslav people, will be able to do everything possible to overcome the internal political crisis,'' Mr. Putin said. ``I am convinced that you and your supporters, being adherents to democratic values, will do everything necessary so events develop within a legal framework and the necessary conditions are created to strengthen the legitimate basis of the legislative and executive branches of power,'' the message said.

Moscow snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Yugoslavia, Russian media said. ``At a last moment Moscow has corrected its mistake and made probably the most painful change in its foreign policy (by dropping support for Mr. Milosevic),'' the authoritative Nezavisimaya Gazeta said on Saturday. Russia's intervention helped insure a peaceful transfer of power in Yugoslavia.

After meeting Mr. Milosevic in Belgrade, the Russian Foreign Minister said the Yugoslav President had agreed not to use force to retain his position. Shortly afterwards, Mr. Milosevic met the victorious Opposition leader and went on television to concede his defeat. ``Moscow helped secure safety guarantees for Mr. Milosevic from the new Yugoslav leader,'' Russian State television said in a report from Belgrade.

In a recognition of Moscow's role in resolving the potentially stand-off the television showed Mr. Kostunica praising Russia's role in Yugoslavia at a joint press conference with Mr. Ivanov in Belgrade. ``The Russian Federation has been giving assistance to Yugoslavia in resolving many complicated problems, such as the NATO aggression last year and the struggle for lifting sanctions,'' the Yugoslav President-elect said. ``Russia has also helped settle political crises in Yugoslavia linked to different interpretation of election results, whether it were municipal elections in 1996 or Presidential elections in 2000.'' Mr. Ivanov quoted Mr. Kostunica as telling him that he wanted to make his first foreign visit to Russia.

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