West Asia Violence: meet to focus on probe forum

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA, OCT. 15 A joint call for an end to the violence that has rocked West Asia during the last 17 days will be the minimum expected of the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr. Ehud Barak, and the Palestinian Authority President, Mr. Yasser Arafat, by the chief mediator and U.S. President, Mr. Bill Clinton, when the three sit with other leaders at the summit in Sharm el Sheikh tomorrow.

Even that minimum will be difficult to achieve since Israel and the Palestinians alike believe that the other side bears most of the responsibility for instigating and perpetuating the latest spell of violence that has left more than a 100 dead and thousands injured. But a substantive issue that the summiteers will try to tackle is the composition and mandate of a forum to probe into the cause of the violence.

Though hard-liners among Israelis and Palestinians have urged their respective leaders to not attend the summit the meeting seems to be on track. Given the fraught situation in West Asia, it is entirely possible that some event could occur in the hours remaining to disrupt the prospects of the summit.

If matters go as planned, however, the U.S., Israeli and Palestinian leaders will be joined by the U.N. Secretary-General, Mr. Kofi Annan. The Egyptian President, Mr. Hosni Mubarak, and Jordan's King Abdullah at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el Sheikh.

While neither Mr. Barak nor Mr. Arafat has publicly acknowledged the other side's demand that they curb their fighters they do seem to be doing so in practice since the last 24 hours have been relatively calm.

Mr. Arafat hopes that the summit will ensure the setting up of an international body to investigate the causes of the disturbances. The U.N. Security Council has already found, though not in so many words, that the conflict was provoked by the visit to the Temple Mount/Al Aqsa complex by the Israeli Opposition leader, Mr. Ariel Sharon. They have also condemned the use of excessive force by Israel. If the Palestinians still insist on the setting up of an international enquiry commission as was suggested in the relevant Security Council Resolution, it is partly because the Israeli government and media have held Mr. Arafat personally responsible for orchestrating the violence.

However, the demand also appears to be tied in with the Palestinian effort to widen the mediating team beyond the U.S. The U.S. had monopolised the process of mediation occasionally roping in regional actors like Egypt and Jordan and usually asking other interlopers like the European Union and Russia to stay out.

Given the US' traditional bias towards Israel, the Palestinians do have reason to believe that there has been a ganging up against them. If such a feeling exists in the minds of the Palestinian leadership it exists in much more magnified form in the Palestinian street. Other Arab states have not really helped matters when they ask the Palestinian leadership to stand firm on some issues while refusing to come on the line and tell Israel and the U.S. that the entire Arab world backs this stance. Mr. Arafat is out on a limb at a time when he has to make the most crucial decisions for his people.

Expanding the West Asian negotiations beyond the U.S.- Israel- Palestinian triangle is probably a matter that can only be gone into after tomorrow's summit. However, the Palestinian leadership affirms that they cannot ask their people to refrain from, as they see it, demonstrating their anger at Israeli oppression unless a mechanism is set up to show up the situation for what it is.

In the Palestinian view, the continued Israeli occupation of their territories, the harassment and humiliation that go with it and the frustrations borne out of the non- implementation of many measures prescribed by previous agreements are as much a part of the cause for the disturbances as the provocative visit by Mr. Sharon. An enquiry that highlights this background can do something to mitigate the Palestinians belief that they are isolated and will perhaps bring some balance into the conduct of negotiations in future.

Israel has refused to accept an international enquiry though they seem prepared to go along with the U.S. proposal that a joint team, comprising Palestinian and Israeli security officials by the U.S., probe into the disturbances.

If this particular issue can be finessed it is likely that other matters can be quickly sorted out.

Israel wants the Palestinian Authority to re-arrest some Islamic militants who were released from jail during the disturbances and recover arms from the Tanzim, the militia wing of Mr. Arafat's Fatah faction.

Similarly, the Palestinians want Israel to pull back its troops to their former positions, away from Palestinian towns, and to open the borders between the West Bank and Jordan and between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.

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