The Vajpayee caravan rolls on

By K. K. Katyal

THE COMPLETION of one year by the Vajpayee Government last week was a low-key affair - conspicuously so compared to the glitter of the celebrations last year during its first tenure. Was it a sign of confidence, with the ruling combine seeing no need for artificial props to demonstrate its strength? Was it because of the realisation that a major celebration might not go down well with the people at a time when the country confronted daunting challenges? It was a surprise that the National Democratic Alliance, especially the BJP segment, preferred to remain subdued when it had all along prided itself on the Government's performance. It is just as well that the temptation was resisted because the public rejoicing by the ruling establishment last time, coupled with the boost to the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, in the wake of the Lahore bus diplomacy (well before Kargil), provoked the Opposition into launching political campaigns which destabilised the Government and led to fresh elections.

How is the Government positioned now and how does it compare with the previous one? There is a qualitative difference. The ruling alliance now is as unwieldy as it was after the 1998 elections but, as against the precarious margin then, it has a comfortable lead in the Lok Sabha. There is thus a cushion against revolt by any of the small groups. Unless two or three of them combine or the Telugu Desam chooses to have second thoughts, there will be no cause for worry. The arithmetic is a deterrent against refractory trends among the constituents, even if they have reason to sulk or fume and fret. Last time, the Government leadership could not afford to take lightly the threatening postures of the tiny group of Mr. O. P. Chautala, while a mere show of stridency by the AIADMK was enough to send shivers down the spines of the Government leaders. This time they took the Mamata revolt in their stride. The NDA leadership, however, cannot afford to be complacent about the pressures of coalition politics which can assume unpredictable proportions.

The advantage accruing from the stability of equations among the NDA partners is partly offset by intra-parivar tensions. Hardliners in the BJP and outfits such as the Swadeshi Jagran Manch are sore over the Government's handling of economic affairs and major policy decisions. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Bajrang Dal do not hide their displeasure over the low priority given to the construction of a Ram temple at Ayodhya. Expressions of dissent by these elements have somewhat damaged the BJP's credibility though there has been no serious fallout. This uneasy calm may not continue long. What if the RSS and VHP cadres do not put their heart into the BJP election campaign? What if the temple issue is revived and carried to a high pitch? The BJP may not find it easy to tackle such awkward cases. This eventuality may well arise soon - in the run-up to the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh next year.

Apart from creating a problematical situation in Uttar Pradesh, it may highlight the predicament of the BJP in the national context. The party leadership may find it harder to continue walking a tightrope - balancing the compulsions arising, on the one hand, from its accommodation of the allies in the NDA and, on the other, pressure from the hardcore elements in the parivar which had been deriding the leadership for giving up the cherished agenda for the sake of office. The critics may not carry their chagrin to the logical conclusion because of the advantage in keeping in place an arrangement which ensures the pursuit of even half of their agenda.

On his part, Mr. Vajpayee could be counted upon to accommodate the parivar sentiments and make concessions, as was evident from his performance at Staten Island, U.S. (at a function held under the auspices of the Indian community). But the undercurrent of tension may not disappear.

This, along with the anti-incumbency factor, could only work to the detriment of the BJP, if not the NDA as a whole. The possible loss of Uttar Pradesh would be a major setback though parties routed in Assembly elections have managed a good showing in Lok Sabha polls. That was the experience of the Congress in the past and of the BJP not very long ago. After the BJP was ousted from power in Delhi and Rajasthan and it failed to wrest control of Madhya Pradesh, the party along with the rest of the NDA retained power at the Centre.

The Congress has yet to demonstrate that it can benefit from the NDA's problems. It may be tempted to see the making of a Congress summer in the Gujarat swallow. That will be an oversimplification if not a grievous mistake. A lot more evidence is needed to conclude that it is regaining lost ground.

Come to think of it, the BJP-led coalition perhaps would not have been in power at the Centre had the Congress not played its cards as clumsily as it did play in 1997 and last year. The party made an issue of the Jain Commission report (on the circumstances connected with the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi) and withdrew support to the United Front Government headed by Mr. I. K. Gujral because its demand for the exclusion of the DMK from the Cabinet was not conceded. That was a phoney excuse for, the Commission report issue was not seriously followed up by the party and it hardly figured in the campaign for the Lok Sabha election that followed. The BJP assuming power at the head of a coalition was the direct result of the destabilisation of the Gujral Government by the Congress.

Last year, after the failure of the Vajpayee Government to win a vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha, the Congress had an opportunity to put together an alternative with the help of other parties. It, however, insisted on forming a Government of its own, spurning suggestions for sharing power. The party was living on past glory. What was the result? It lost the sympathy of the non-BJP elements, yet another Lok Sabha election followed and the NDA assumed power with a larger majority. In the first case, Ms. Sonia Gandhi was not formally at the helm but otherwise had had an effective say. On the second occasion, she was the party chief. Those who advised her on the two occasions were thus directly and primarily responsible for the party's woes. Are their voices still heard in its decision-making processes? If so, could the party hope for better days? Will not its opponents get an unearned advantage?

Some of the ruling coalition's advantages are also its weaknesses. The emergence of Mr. Vajpayee at the top was of great help to the combine as a whole (but not to the BJP) at the hustings. The advantage accruing to the constituents from his unchallenged supremacy was fully used to cover up their many contradictions and check the erosion of their credibility. In the process, they exposed themselves to the very charge they used to level against the Congress - reliance on a single individual, love for personality cult. Coalition-brand centralism, however, is different in material ways. Take the composition of the Cabinet. Technically, it is the Prime Minister's prerogative to choose his colleagues and allot work to them but, in practice, he has to go by the nominations of the leaders of the constituents for their quotas and, at times, even accommodate them in the matter of portfolios. This is inherent in coalition politics and there is no point taking a grim view on this count. Over-reliance on a single individual creates serious problems in a single-party Government, more so in a coalition. Problems of succession and transition. As of now, however, the overall acceptability of Mr. Vajpayee signifies a fair degree of political stability - which eluded the country between 1996 and 1999.

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