A political battle looms in Japan too

By F.J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, NOV. 13. The Japanese Prime Minister, Mr. Yoshiro Mori has just flown off to the Asia-Pacific summit in Brunei for what is certainly a welcome breather for him as he fights for his political survival as soon as he returns.

A week from now, it is likely that Mr. Mori will face a no- confidence motion in the Lower House, to be jointly sponsored by the four main Opposition parties. The only question is whether the principal challenger to Mr. Mori within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will abstain or support the no- confidence motion. Assuming that this challenger, Mr. Koichi Kato and his faction supports the Opposition move, Mr. Mori can take a long vacation and the LDP will almost certainly split up.

Japanese politics is not half as widely reported as the U.S.'s is, because in international impact terms, who emerges at the top matters as little to the rest of the world as much as it matters to an Indian who is appointed the Governor of a State. The Gore- Bush contest can hardly be matched even by writers of fiction. But, as political brawls go, Japanese fights are as bare-knuckled as they come, with unimaginable sums of money influencing the outcome. In an interesting intellectual parallel, in Japan too the battle is between two opposite poles. ``Kato takes off gloves in power play,'' headlined the Asahi Shimbun on Saturday. Mr. Koichi Kato, 61, an LDP veteran, said over the weekend that ``I just cannot pledge to vote to defeat the (Opposition's) no- confidence motion which seems to be supported by 75 per cent of the people, just because I belong to the LDP.'' Commentators say Mr. Kato had realised that some other mainstream factions were trying to wean away his faction members to severely dilute his influence.

Mr. Koichi Kato is the effective head of the LDP's second largest faction, the Miyazawa faction, with 45 members. Sheer numerical weight therefore makes him a principal determinant of who sits as Prime Minister. The largest faction is the Hashimoto faction, with 60 seats. Formally, the LDP says it no longer has factions, but in reality the party has always been and still is a coalition registered as a party. Conventionally, the leader of the largest party, mostly the LDP, also becomes the Prime Minister.

The one solitary exception is Mr. Yohei Kono, who is the Foreign Minister and who even as party chief, lost out in becoming Prime Minister to Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto in early 1996. The intentions of Mr. Kato are not yet certain, though the widespread view is he has launched a frontal counter attack for leadership because the others were trying to undermine his factional numbers. Mr. Kato has chosen this time to strike at a leader whose actions have earned him the sobriquet of a ``serial blunderer.'' Mr Mori's recent blunders have sent his opinion poll unfavourable ratings up to over 71 per cent.

It is also possible that this is just a serious attempt at altering the balance of power within the party before a cabinet reshuffle expected in December. At worst, by threatening to join the Opposition and break up the party before going in for a possible general election, Mr. Kato could be indulging in extreme brinkmanship.

Mr. Kato's bid for the throne is all about timing and numbers. He has 45 seats and has found himself a committed ally in his faithful colleague, Mr. Taku Yamasaki, who has 19 under his belt. Ranged against these two chiefs are practically all the other factional leaders, making Mr. Kato's possible bid for leadership practically a revolt. The heads of the Hashimoto (60 members), Mori (39), Eto-Kamei (36) and the smaller factions have announced their support to keep Mr. Mori in power.

The Lower House has 480 seats. The Opposition occupies 190 of them. Assuming that the Opposition and the LDP-led three party coalition (minus Messrs. Kato and Yamasaki and allies) vote along party or faction lines, then the entire battle would hinge on Kato-Yamasaki & Co. These rebels enjoy not just the 45 seats of Mr. Kato and 19 of Mr. Yamasaki, but nine each from among independents. There is still time for horse-trading and compromise, but Mr. Kato has reminded his party rivals of the swing vote he enjoys. And, unlike the litigious U.S., in Japan a political battle will be fought in the political arena, not the courts.

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