China's pledge of restraint

CHINA'S STRATEGIC DECISION to desist from helping other countries to develop ballistic missiles, which could be used to deliver nuclear weapons, is a salutary pledge. If honoured, its beneficial spinoff will have deep international implications. Not surprisingly, Washington has warmly reciprocated this by viewing Beijing's new diplomacy as a window of opportunity to advance the U.S.' global agenda of non-proliferation. In a sense, Beijing has now impliedly addressed New Delhi's assertive belief, too, that China has been masterminding Pakistan's missile acquisition programme over a long period. Speaking of ``transfers to countries that are developing ballistic missiles'', China says that it ``will exercise special scrutiny and caution''. The stated Chinese aim is to ``prevent significant contributions'' to unspecified countries. However, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea are often suspected to be the recipients of China's missile- related munificence. Overall, the punchline in China's statement is that the new norms will apply even to those items not specifically covered under Beijing's existing ban on exports. Moreover, China will ``further improve and reinforce'' its ``export control system'' now defined by its own ``missile non- proliferation policy''. The sweeping array of commitments includes an unprecedented ban on the export of dual-use items with military applications. This catalogue of do's and don'ts deserves to be commended. Resonant is the Chinese theme of restraint in eschewing overt and clandestine support for the missile plans of any country. Yet it is certainly not easy to devise a litmus test to assess Beijing's sustainable good faith.

India cannot therefore be faulted for being guarded or even sceptical in its own evaluation of Beijing's latest manifesto of abstinence from missile-proliferation. New Delhi's strong suspicion about China's past transfers of missiles or parts thereof to Pakistan has often been confirmed by Washington's independent findings. The saga of Pakistan's perceived acquisition of M-11 missiles or components thereof from China sometime ago, besides perhaps the knowhow too, is still a critical factor in India's long-term thinking on this subject. New Delhi has already highlighted its China-related concerns to Washington and the new entente with the United States would probably provide a context within which strategic information, including the China-Pakistan arms transfers, will be more easily exchanged. Yet, more importantly, India must seek to preserve the momentum of its strategic dialogue with China. A matter of some positive ambience for India in this context is the American decision to retain and enlarge its current sanctions on civilian and military `entities' in Pakistan as also Iran that had in the past received China's help for their missile programmes. Although Iran is not akin to Pakistan in New Delhi's calculus, the obvious message from the U.S. is that these two countries should clear their stables in this sensitive sphere.

The U.S. tends to assume that its own diplomatic goading of China has had a desirable impact. The timing of Beijing's announcement within days of a U.S.-China summit on the sidelines of an Asia- Pacific conference is not insignificant. Yet the question is whether China is seeking a trade-off by promising to hold its hand over international missile proliferation so that Washington could review its plan for a theatre-missile defence system (TMD) in the Asia-Pacific zone. China sees the TMD as a ploy to encircle it strategically. Moreover, China has already hinted at making common cause with Russia in opposing the U.S.' now- deferred plans for a national missile defence system (NMD). As seen by Beijing, the NMD may catapult the U.S. to a new military apogee. So, Washington's considered offer of civilian space collaboration with China, as a reward for its good intentions on the missile front, is a move to try and keep Beijing within bounds on its anti-NMD front.

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