Iliescu all set to win

By Vaiju Naravane

PARIS, NOV. 26. Romania began voting on Sunday in parliamentary and presidential elections that are expected to bring leftists led by the ex-Communist, Mr. Ion Iliescu, back to power.

The vote is also expected to reflect a rise in popular support for ultra-nationalists, but Mr. Iliescu's Party of Social Democracy, thrown out of power by voters four years ago, appeared poised to come back into control of Parliament. Mr. Iliescu (70), was also expected to lead the first round of presidential polls. Opinion polls say he will win over 40 per cent of the vote.

The Romanian political landscape seems to have changed little since the early 90's. Mr. Iliescu took over after the dictator, Nicolae Ceaucescu, was deposed and later executed in a summary trial in what was euphemistically called the ``Romanian Revolution'' but in fact was little more than a palace coup. The country was then led disastrously by the neo-liberal President, Mr. Emile Constantinescu whose years in office were marked by changes in policies and Prime Ministers. Mr. Mugur Isarescu, his last Prime Minister, who is also running for President, is unfortunately making a disappointing showing in the polls with just 14 per cent of the vote. During his 10 months in office he pushed through several economic reforms which resulted in increased exports and reduced inflation.

Romania's economic situation, however, remains grim. Unemployment is estimated at 11 per cent while inflation is running at 40 per cent. The average Romanian wage is $ 100 a month. The country is sharply divided over whether or not to undertake the necessary reforms which, in the short run, result in massive lay-offs and further austerity and hardship.

Many Romanians harbour a certain nostalgia for the former communist system when life was easygoing albeit poor. The ``Revolution'' of 1989 changed all that. And after the first

flush of euphoria over the demise of the dreaded dictator had died down, the harsh reality of a market economy began to sink in. The European Union and the World Bank fear a slowdown in both democratic and economic reforms with a socialist return to power.

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Section  : International
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