Disarray all round

By K. K. Katyal

THE WRANGLE between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party in the Lok Sabha on the first working day of the current session dramatised a major contradiction in the Opposition camp which along with similar features could be of crucial significance in shaping a new power structure at the Centre whenever the occasion arises. This could work in different ways, depending on the likely case scenarios. It could create problems for concerted moves to keep the BJP out of power by its opponents; or it may entail tough bargaining in the process of putting together a non- BJP dispensation, should that become a practical proposition. This prognosis is based on the assumption that the era of the single-party majority is past and that the BJP and the Congress will, at best, become the rallying points of rival groupings or attempts will be made to form a third front.

The Lok Sabha episode also served as a reminder that the SP's decision not to cast its lot with the Congress prevented a non- BJP alternative assuming office last year after the then Vajpayee Government's failure to win a confidence vote. Had the party and its leader, Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, been on the same side of the political fence then and had the Congress been willing to share power with others, the country's politics would have taken a materially different turn. With its impressive win in the last Lok Sabha election, the SP is a now force to reckon with not merely in Uttar Pradesh, its only stronghold, but also at the national level. In the event of a diffused picture, such groups would acquire a larger-than-life role.

The determined bid by the SP members to have the first say in the Lok Sabha in support of farmers' cause, before the Congress leader, Ms. Sonia Gandhi, is of interest in the immediate context too. For two reasons - one substantive, the other trivial. The SP members did not want the Congress to have a free run of the Opposition space and project itself as the main votary of the poor, especially because the farmers' plight was the worst in ``their'' State. That Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are not far away could also have been factored in by them. The frivolous aspect was evident when an SP senior let it be known (outside the House) that they had chosen to take on the Congress president because of a sharp tiff between him and one of her party MPs at a social evening the previous week.

After blocking Ms. Gandhi and, thus, having made its point, the SP did not disrupt the proceedings the following day and let her speak. It, however, sought to convey another message - fielding second-rankers as the party's speakers in the debate initiated by her.

The Lok Sabha incident is one of the pointers that the political pattern at the Centre may be headed for fragmentation instead of witnessing sharper polarisation (and a reduction in the number of parties), which is what the country's interest demands.

In the past, when the Congress was in power at the Centre, leaders of all Opposition parties used to get together on the eve of Parliament sessions to plan floor coordination. The purpose was to ensure the fullest possible use of procedural opportunities to embarrass the Government. Party affiliations were subordinated to this joint objective. It is a different story now. The Congress did not seem interested in taking the lead for joint pre-session strategy planning. The initiative was taken by the CPI(M)'s Mr. Somnath Chatterjee. The Congress was represented in it but its presence became an excuse for the Mulayam party to stay away. Two Left Front partners, RSP and Forward Bloc, too were absent - for the same reason.

What is the picture now? The BJP has peaked, the Congress does not look like reversing the trend towards decline (at the most, it may have been halted). And the third front, a label that is applied to what cannot be described in any other way, does not seem to take shape. Viewed from another angle, the Opposition as a whole lacks the will to pool its strength and resources to challenge the Government, while the ruling combine and its main constituent, BJP, reveal a serious lack of cohesion.

Two recent developments showed the ease with which the National Democratic Alliance could slide towards fragility. Ms. Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress carried their opportunism to the extreme when she quit the Union Cabinet to demonstrate her unhappiness over the hike in the prices of petroleum products. The decision on prices was taken with the approval of the NDA, of which her group was part, and by the Cabinet, of which she was a member. In the pursuit of a populist approach, adopted by her after deliberation with next year's Assembly elections in West Bengal in mind, she had no use for such niceties as collective responsibility of the Cabinet or consensus among the alliance constituents. Having tasted ``victory'', she may embark upon similar misadventures, as the poll in her home-State draws closer. And lately, the Shiv Sena, another ally of the BJP, carried its boorishness, to an unseemly limit when it burnt an effigy of the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, near the Parliament House in protest against the ceasefire offer made to militants in Jammu and Kashmir. Then there was the widespread dissatisfaction in the Sangh Parivar over economic policies and the construction of a Ram temple at Ayodhya.

The situation in the Opposition camp, too, is far from conducive to orderliness in the polity. The Congress still lives on its past glory, sticking to the Pachmari line - of going it alone - in the belief that the party could provide an alternative on its own. It has made no effort to lead joint campaigns against the ruling alliance, even though there is no dearth of issues on which there are no differences between it and others in the Opposition. The party leadership is a prisoner of illusions, showing inexplicable confidence in its capacity to recover lost ground, in benefiting from people's disillusionment with the Government's performance. In the euphoria generated by the overwhelming support received by Ms. Gandhi for Congress presidentship, it is forgotten that this was an in-house operation. In their naivete, both the leadership and the rank and file tend to treat it as a show of renewed popular support. Yes, Congress members have reaffirmed faith in her, obviously because she is regarded as the best bet as a vote-getter and chose not to revise their opinion even though the party's tally in the last Lok Sabha election was the lowest so far. Issue-wise, there is nothing to suggest that the party has captured the imagination of the people or won back the lost constituencies.

On the contrary, what stands out is its inability to define its stand on major issues, economic or security-related. The Congress is caught in a dilemma - it could not afford to be seen as backing the Government, or adopt a line of total opposition because some of the present policies were an extension of the decisions taken when it was in power - economic policies, to cite one case.

The non-Congress segment of the Opposition has yet to establish its credibility, either as individual groups (with one or two exceptions) or as a whole. Certainly, there is no sign of their emerging as a third front - it figured in the statements of the CPI(M) leaders during their recent special conference in Thiruvananthapuram. It was sought to be emphasised through the invitations to other Opposition representatives to a seminar organised on the occasion. However, there was no clarity on the shape of the third force. The Bihar supremo, Mr. Laloo Prasad Yadav, a star invitee, was for involving the Congress in the fight against the BJP. The CPI(M) leader, Mr. Harkishan Singh Surjeet, was far from enthusiastic - terming Mr. Yadav's plea arising under ``domestic political compulsions''. By implication, his preference was for a non-Congress, non-BJP front. But could it take a credible form, given the present reality? The constraints and dilemmas of the opponents of the BJP stand out even as that party has lost its shine.

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