Ulster problems wait for Clinton

By Hasan Suroor

LONDON, NOV. 28. Even as the White House on Monday confirmed that the U.S. President, Mr. Bill Clinton would visit Northern Ireland next month on a peace mission, the political temperature in Belfast rose again with the Sinn Fein threatening not to allow any more inspections of its arms dumps, thus further delaying the process of arms decommissioning by the Irish Republican Army (IRA).

The Good Friday Agreement could be in serious trouble if the Sinn Fein goes ahead with its threat, and Mr. Clinton will have his work cut out when he arrives in the province in mid- December. He is expected to spend three days in the U.K. and Ireland from December 12 to December 14. This would be his third visit to Northern Ireland and according to a White House announcement it is intended to help ``overcome current difficulties on the path to lasting peace.''

Meanwhile, the Sinn Fein's move follows its dissatisfaction with the new policing legislation intended to reform the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) as part of the Good Friday Agreement. The Sinn Fein says the legislation falls far short of the Patten Commission report which had recommended complete dismantling of the RUC and its replacement by a more ``democratic'' and ``transparent'' police force acceptable to all sides in Northern Ireland.

The Sinn Fein chairman, Mr. Michel McLaughlin denounced the new legislation as a ``betrayal'' by the British Government. He was particularly angry with the Northern Ireland Secretary, Mr. Peter Mandelson saying that his approach to policing had ``damaged the tenuous bridge of trust'' between the Republicans and the Government.

He thought that London had succumbed to pressures from the Unionists and made it clear that in its present form the new arrangement was not acceptable to the Republicans. IRA dissidents, who had broken away to form the Real IRA protesting the Sinn Fein's moderate policies, will be encouraged by the Government's perceived tilt towards the Unionists on the issue of police reforms.

Clearly, the Sinn Fein wants to pre-empt any move by the Real IRA to embarrass it, and hence the threat to block further inspection of arms dumps. The arms decommissioning is already a major source of tension as the Unionists are extremely angry with its slow pace and are insisting on a firm time-frame.

The Ulster Unionist Party (UPP) leader, Mr. David Trimble is under pressure from his party hardliners to walk out of the power-sharing arrangement with the Sinn Fein if there is no visible progress over the next few weeks. So far Mr. Trimble has been able to rein in the hardliners but he might not be able to withstand the pressure for too long and the British Government, worried that this could unravel the peace process, is trying to get the two sides to break the deadlock. The policing legislation, however, has given a new turn to the situation and there is a view that now only Mr. Clinton can bring about a compromise.

In another significant development, the Sinn Fein has got a nod from a court to challenge the legal validity of Mr. Trimble's ban on the Sinn Fein Ministers attending cross-border meetings with Irish Ministers.

The ``ban'' was a result of Mr. Trimble's compromise with party hardliners not to insist on walking out of the power-sharing executive. In the event, it has created its own problems.

The only silver lining in the clouds gathering over Belfast is that Mr Trimble is seen both by the British and the Sinn Fein as the only moderate influence on the Unionists and therefore the Sinn Fein would think twice before doing anything to make his position vulnerable. For, it is literally a case of deluge after Mr. Trimble and nobody wants a deluge.

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Section  : International
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