Pointers from Uttar Pradesh

AFTER THE DRUBBING it received in the polls for the rural bodies in Uttar Pradesh a couple of months ago, the BJP in the State would find solace in that its performance in the elections to the urban bodies was not all that bad. After all, it did appear, even until a couple of weeks ago, that the downslide in its popular base that had begun to show up in the 1999 general elections was only going to continue. In this sense, the fact that the party could retain six out of the 11 corporations in the State will be read by the party's leaders as a positive indication. A section of them may even accord the credit for this to Mr. Rajnath Singh and his appointment as Chief Minister leading an influential section of the upper castes - the Rajputs - back into the BJP fold. But then, the fact that the BJP lost the Mayor's post in Allahabad, Kanpur and Gorakhpur and also suffered reverses in several municipalities across eastern Uttar Pradesh suggest a beginning of a decline. If the Allahabad verdict assumes significance because it also happens to be the Lok Sabha constituency of BJP strongman and Union Minister for Human Resource Development, Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi, the BJP's defeat in Gorakhpur (to an independent) reflects the anger against the members of the Rajnath Singh Cabinet.

In all these, the message from Uttar Pradesh is clear and that is against the BJP's attempts to communalise the political discourse. In addition to this, the successive reverses suffered by the party since the 1999 Lok Sabha elections can be seen as an alienation in the State from the abrasive tactics adopted by the BJP to retain its power. By reducing ministerial offices to instruments to manage a majority in the State Assembly and making Cabinet Ministers of persons having criminal records, the BJP leadership has shown an indifference to democratic values and principles; and the drubbing received by the party in the elections to the local bodies suggests that the people of the State have registered their disapproval of those goings-on. It also signals that the emotive slogans that were used by the BJP (around the Ayodhya dispute) are no longer effective mobilisers in the State's political discourse. The Sangh Parivar did revive its attempts in the past few months to whip up the same kind of emotions that helped the BJP come to power in Uttar Pradesh a decade ago; for instance the RSS camp at Agra sometime ago or the public debate that the BJP leaders initiated through introducing legislation aimed at restraining the construction of places of worship through which the party's cadre was attempting to conjure up fears of the ISI setting up bases across the State were all conscious efforts towards this end. The inability of the BJP to benefit from these attempts simply reflects the rejection by the people of such sectarian ideas.

Be that as it may, there is yet another important signal from the elections results; and that relates to the inability of the forces against the BJP to combine their strength. It may be true that Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party has emerged as the biggest force against the BJP in the State. But then, the fact that the BSP has managed to retain its relevance in the State's political map - the party's candidate making it to the Mayor's post in Meerut as well as its vote share across the State - cannot be glossed over. Similarly, the Congress seems to be showing signs of a revival and the fact that the party has wrested the Kanpur Mayor's post suggests that it has managed to retain the gains made in the last general elections; it is another matter that the Congress has not been able to consolidate any further. All these are factors that must be taken into account by the various players on the Uttar Pradesh political scene while working out the strategy for the State Assembly elections due within a year.

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