Prospects of West Asia peace deal brighten

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN) NOV. 30. Israel's Parliament (the Knesset) has decided to dissolve itself and the major parties are trying to set the date for fresh elections to be held within the next six months. This development has ironically improved the prospects for an agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians. If such an agreement appears imminent, it could turn the coming vote into a different sort of exercise and could perhaps even induce a desire to reverse the decision to dissolve the House.

In a confusing turn of events on Tuesday, Israel's Prime Minister, Mr. Ehud Barak, suddenly announced that he was willing to go along with the Oppositions demand for a dissolution of the Knesset and the holding of fresh elections. If nothing else, the move has won time for Mr. Barak. Dates for elections are set through consultations between the two main parties and though both the ruling One Israel and the Opposition held their meetings on this subject on Tuesday itself it is unlikely that the elections will be held before May. There are a lot of compelling reasons to hold the elections at an earlier date, including the need to pass the budget not too long after January when it is traditionally presented. However, political compulsions within the Likud make it unlikely that they will be ready for an election within less than six months.

While Mr. Barak is also likely to face a challenge to the leadership of his party, he has shrewdly moved to advance the date for primaries within Labour. His challengers are not likely to have sufficient time to organise themselves.

Having opted for elections, Mr. Barak knows that his best hopes for re-election lie in his ability to present his electorate with the outlines of a final deal with the Palestinians. It might not be possible for him in the current situation to actually sign a deal but Mr. Barak has vowed that he will continue with the negotiations. An agreement, even if it is not formally signed, which promises an end to the decades-long conflict, will go down well with an Israeli public over 60 per cent of whom even in these turbulent days - opinion polls show - favour such a final deal.

So far, the Palestinian leadership has come out with pro forma responses to the developments in Israel... ``that it is an internal matter'' etc. However, the Palestinian leadership is better aware of the realities than anyone else. If the Likud should come to power (voted in because of the short-term consideration that they will be better able to contain the current spate of violence), it would mean the end of the negotiations for another four to five years. The Palestinian Authority President, Mr. Yasser Arafat, is 71 years old and neither he nor his people are going to have the patience to wait out a Likud administration.

The outlines of a deal have been fairly clear after the Camp David talks and subsequent discussions. The U.S. President, Mr. Bill Clinton, will leave office very soon and both Mr. Barak and Mr. Arafat have reason to think that on balance their respective interests will be better served through a final agreement than otherwise.

If such an agreement does come through, the election will be of the nature of a referendum. Mr. Barak had, in any case, promised that he would submit any agreement with the Palestinians for the people's approval. If he can come up with a deal that a majority of Israelis are likely to support, the election of a new Parliament will be of secondary importance. It is, therefore, likely that the calls for the formation of a national unity government might continue to be heard from the Likud.

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Section  : International
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