Pakistan's double jeopardy

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, DEC. 3. The unrestrained military adventurism of Pakistan on two fronts - Kashmir and Afghanistan - has finally come up against some serious political resistance for the first time in a decade. Until recently it seemed there was nothing in the world to inhibit the Army in Pakistan from pursuing expansionist policies across its borders despite the parlous state of the nation's economy and decaying internal structures. But the apparent unlimited autonomy of the ``visionaries'' in Pakistan army's General Headquarters in Rawalpindi is now being challenged in both Kashmir and Afghanistan.

After playing on the backfoot in Kashmir for more than 10 years, New Delhi has finally seized the initiative with its unilateral Ramzan ceasefire. The ennui with violence in the Kashmir Valley and the growing international pressure on Pakistan to stop fanning the flames have let India fashion with confidence a more purposeful policy.

Islamabad's belated response to the initiative is indeed a consequence of the new sentiment for peace and dialogue in the Valley. The Generals in Pakistan are also being nudged by leading western nations to give peace a chance in Kashmir. The international pressure against Pakistan on the Afghan front is more visible and open. The United Nations Security Council, under goading from the United States and Russia, is considering a more punitive set of sanctions against the Taliban regime that will put its mentors in Islamabad in the spot.

All indications are that the new sanctions resolution will be approved by the Security Council in the next few days. It is a measure of the ``genius'' of Taliban and its mentors that they have facilitated a convergence of interests between Washington and Moscow who had played out one of the last acts of Cold War in Afghanistan a little more than a decade ago.

Pakistan's policies have also allowed Iran, a leading Islamic nation, and India, its arch rival, to become key players in the anti- Taliban coalition. Even China, Pakistan's self-proclaimed ``all-weather friend'', is unlikely to stand in the way of additional sanctions against the Taliban. The move to expand sanctions against Kabul is a reflection of the growing frustration of the international community at its inability to persuade Pakistan to either rein in the Taliban or end its military intervention in Afghanistan.

The objective of the new sanctions is twofold. One is to mount additional pressure on the Taliban leadership, by freezing its foreign accounts, closing its offices abroad, and prohibiting all international flights (except humanitarian ones), and restrictions on travel by the senior government officials. The other is to focus squarely on Pakistan's military support to the Taliban. The proposed arms embargo is deliberately limited to the Taliban and would allow external military assistance to its opponents in the northern alliance.

Skeptics argue sanctions are rarely effective in the real world, and that it is impossible to prevent Pakistan from violating the new sanctions with impunity. The supporters of the arms embargo against the Taliban suggest that the resolution will be a signal to Pakistan that it is now on notice, and more action, possibly including military, could follow in the future.

There is nothing in the public domain in Pakistan to suggest that the military leadership there is reviewing the fundamentals of its policy in Kashmir and Afghanistan. Its responses to the Indian initiative in Kashmir and the world appeals on Afghanistan appear tactical rather than strategic. Pakistan's military adventurism in both the conflicts has been driven by a sense that victory is round the corner and a little more time and effort would produce spectacular political triumphs in Kashmir and Afghanistan.

But the latest developments in the two conflicts are forcing Pakistan to pause for a moment take a deep breath and revaluate its options. The big question is whether Gen. Pervez. Musharraf has either the power or the will to launch Pakistan on a new course that rejects external adventure and focuses on internal development. If the Pakistani generals can shake off the jehadis and choose a different path, India and the world will be ready to make a new beginning with Pakistan. If they cannot change the direction, they will push Pakistan towards greater political isolation. It is a tough call, but it is their call.

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