More uncertainty likely in U.S. Presidential poll

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON, DEC. 8. Now into the fifth week there is only one thing certain about the U.S. Presidential election - more uncertainty, especially if the Florida Court rulings go against the Texas Governor, Mr. George W. Bush. The other possibility that looms large is the U.S. Vice-President, Mr. Al Gore, not calling it quits in the aftermath of a State Supreme Court ruling going against him.

Legally, it is virtually certain that the Texas Governor will he heading either to the Federal Court of Appeals or even directly to the U.S. Supreme Court if the Florida Supreme Court or one of the Circuit Courts were to come out with an adverse ruling. Mr. Bush's appeal in the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta is very much alive. Setting aside his petition on manual counts this week, the judges in Atlanta made it clear that they were not ruling on the constitutional points raised.

Politically, the tables will be turned on the Texas Governor if he were go to the courts; and the Gore campaign will make as much noise as possible given that it is running out of time. But in reality, the Bush campaign will have to run the clock out; and the Gore camp would have done the same thing if it was in a similar situation.

Right now even if all eyes are on the statutory deadlines and the Florida Courts quite cognisant of at least one - December 12 for choosing electors - there is also the realisation that the Courts would be moved all over again for ``extensions''. For instance, if Mr. Gore is being given the benefit of the doubt by the Florida Supreme Court and counting is inconclusive by December 12, what will be the option?

The Bush campaign, or for that matter the Texas Governor personally, may have had nothing directly to do with the convening of the special session of the Florida Legislature. But there is no denying the fact that Republicans, in Florida and elsewhere, wanted to take out some insurance against the candidate faltering in courts in the very last stages.

The Democrats are naturally crying foul; but there is very little they can do in the face of the numerical odds in the Legislature. And the Republicans are not overly concerned about sending two sets of electors and making the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Capitol Hill to be the final arbiter. In fact, several hawkish Republicans are raring for a political fight if the elections gets ``stolen'' from the Grand Old Party.

Republicans on Capitol Hill are hardly worried about the fallouts of yet another showdown with the Democrats; they are looking at the immediate, not 2002 or 2004. But the Democrats have a bigger headache, in the short term - that is if Mr. Gore does not throw in the towel if an adverse verdict comes out of the Florida Supreme Court. For quite some time, there was this impression that the State Supreme Court was the endgame, but not any more.

Mr. Al Gore is expressing keen interest on what is happening in two other courts in Tallahassee involving absentee ballots in Seminole and Martin counties. Tossing out hundreds or even thousands of ballots on grounds of impropriety would benefit Mr. Gore. Ironically, for a person who has been insisting that every vote must count, Mr. Gore now hopes for a shot at the Presidency by tossing out votes on technical grounds - something that has not been lost either within the Democrats or his detractors.

Mr. Gore is not, at least at this point of time, looking at either the Congressional elections of 2002, or the Presidential election of 2004. But privately many Democrats are; and they wish to utilise a Bush administration to consolidate their grip.

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