Hard times for Hague

As the Tories' winter of discontent looks set to spill over into the spring who would want to be in Mr. Hague's shoes, asks HASAN SUROOR.

FOR MUCH of this winter so far, it has been an open season on the Tory leader, Mr. William Hague, with cartoonists, inspired by his difficulties in and outside the party, having a field day at his expense. He has been variously shown riding a chariot without wheels, wielding a hopelessly blunt wooden sword, wondering if he has his head firmly on his shoulders and sitting on a bandwagon stranded in the middle of nowhere.

Ever since the Tories lost the three key parliamentary byelections last month, Mr. Hague, who back in September had started to scent power following the crippling anti-Blair fuel protests, looks like losing grip even over his own party. The latest opinion poll, which shows that the Tories have slipped further behind the Labour Party and his own popularity is down to rockbottom (he is seen as the least popular of the three national leaders, behind even Mr. Charles Kennedy of the Liberal Democratic Party), has brought the simmering discontent in the party into the open and the knives are out for Mr. Hague.

Suddenly, he is being portrayed as a liability in the run-up to next year's general elections and even those who are not necessarily aligned with his rivals in the party are beginning to lose confidence in his leadership. As for his party, it is so unsure of him that his aides are apparently advising him to avoid a proposed ``live'' TV debate with the Prime Minister Mr. Tony Blair, during the election campaign. For all his witty one-liners they fear that he might botch up the script and cause the party to suffer some avoidable bruises at this juncture.

No one loves a loser, and his party colleagues are no exception. Yet the speed with which the anti-Hague factions have moved to close in on him has surprised observers. The rival groups have jostled themselves into positions which, they hope, would lead straight to the throne once Mr. Hague is shown the door, if not immediately then after the May elections which the Tories themselves now believe they are set to lose.

The two main contenders are the right-wing shadow Home Secretary, Ms. Anne Widdecombe, and the ``moderate'' shadow Chancellor Mr. Michael Portillo, both of whom used the party's annual conference in Bournemouth in September to throw their hats in the ring. Both used the party platform to unfurl and wave their individual designer flags - Ms. Widdecombe announcing her tough social agenda, and Mr. Portillo making a plea for a more tolerant, liberal and ``inclusive'' political culture. It was only after Bournemouth that the party became so clearly divided between ``social authoritarians'' or ``rockers'' led by Ms. Widdecombe and the ``mods'' led by Mr. Portillo.

In the past few days, a third element has entered the picture. It is Mr. Kenneth Clarke, former Chancellor, who attacked Mr. Hague recently for his euro-phobic policies particularly his strong opposition to the European rapid reaction force. Mr. Clarke has been brought in by the ``centrists'' in the party to neutralise the ``extremes'' represented by Ms. Widdecombe and Mr. Portillo. Mr. Clarke has said that he would not challenge Mr. Hague's leadership but if there were a contest he would be game for it. This is a fudge. For the fact is that even the other two contenders have not openly challenged Mr. Hague's leadership, and Mr. Portillo, in particular, has been fighting shy of admitting that he is in the race. Yet, everyone knows that they are there - waiting to strike at the right moment. And Mr. Clarke, for all his ``ifs'' and ``buts'', is there as well.

Mr. Portillo who has been virtually forced by Mr. Hague's dirty tricks department to declare that he has no leadership ambitions appeared with the boss on the same platform this week and according to those present on the occasion their body language did not quite match their attempt at a show of unity. TheIndependent reported the next day that they ``smiled through gritted teeth''. One reason why Mr. Portillo is not standing up to be counted as openly as he would have liked to is his perceived vulnerability because of his controversial gay past. His supporters fear that this could become a problem in a party which, for all its attempt to modernise itself, remains deeply conservative at heart. They are not sure if the rank and file would plump for a leader who is a self-confessed one-time gay which traditional conservatives regard as a sign of being a social deviant.

The strategy is to play it by ear and meanwhile they have someone else waiting in the wings. The shadow Foreign Secretary, Mr. Francis Maude, has been told to hang around in case Mr. Portillo is forced to stand down. Right now, however, Mr. Maude is playing peace-maker and has called for unity in the party following a sharp attack on the leadership by pro-Europe Conservatives. He has said that the party should work together to serve the nation and ``not to serve any individuals within the party''. Implicit in this is the admission that there are people who are pursuing individual rather than party interests.

In effect, what is going on in the Conservative party is a rehearsal - a testing of waters before the plunge. For the truth is that given its present state - one shadow minister, Mr. Garty Streeter, has publicly stated that the party has little chance of winning the next elections and he is seen to have spoken for many of his colleagues - no one with serious leadership ambitions wants to take over now, in the countdown to the electoral defeat. The idea is to let Mr. Hague lead the party to defeat and then demand his head. It would not only sound more ``principled'' but also give the new incumbent more time to rebuild the party, and make it fighting fit for the 2004-2005 elections.

As the Tories' winter of discontent looks set to spill over into the spring who would want to be in Mr. Hague's shoes? No wonder everyone is playing for the morning after the defeat, and it is barely six months away.

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