Palestinians not to await outcome

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), DEC. 11. The Palestinians claim that they do not care who wins the elections that will be held in Israel, probably as early as next February. To an extent they are right when they point out that they have got the same whether the Israeli Prime Minister was Mr. Ehud Barak or Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu. Lots of promises that are hardly ever implemented on the ground. But the Palestinians know that there is a vital difference and it is difficult to see them sitting by idly while Israel sorts out its political mess.

Mr. Barak, like his predecessor, had entered into a number of agreements on the more mechanistic subjects that were dealt with in the interim phase of the Oslo-designed negotiations. Over the combined tenures of the two Prime Ministers, Israel had agreed to transfer a bit more land in the occupied territories to the control of the Palestinian Authority, agreed to open transit corridors between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, open airports and sea-ports and release some prisoners from Israeli jails. But when it came to the implementation of these agreements, Mr. Barak's record is only marginally better, and even what he has actually granted is chimerical. For example, the air and sea ports were opened during Mr. Barak's tenure but as events in the last two months have shown, the Palestinian ports stay open only when the Israelis permit.

Unlike external observers, who can afford to take a more generous view, the Palestinians do not measure the performance of Israeli leaders by the quality of the promises they make. They do so by measuring the quantum of implementation. By this yard-stick, the contrast between Mr. Barak and Mr. Netanyahu is not as stark as it can often appear to external observers. Therefore, from the Palestinian perspective, it does not really matter whether they have to deal with Mr. Barak or Mr. Netanyahu.

However, there is a crucial attitudinal difference. Mr. Netanyahu was plainly insincere, making promises to the Palestinians while simultaneously signalling to his right-wing supporters that he had no intention of doing anything about his promises. Mr. Barak, on the other hand, at least broke new ground and shook off some of the taboos that have constrained Israeli leaders in their dealings with the Palestinians. For example, in announcing his decision to call a new election, Mr. Barak significantly dropped the traditional reference to Jerusalem as the eternal and unified capital of Israel. The implicit message that he will contemplate the sharing of sovereignty over Jerusalem is in line with previous conceptual breakthroughs such as Mr. Barak's readiness to vacate the Jordan valley and to dismantle some of the Jewish settlements.

Although Mr. Barak has shown far more flexibility than previous Israeli leaders, his best offer falls far short of the minimum that the Palestinians can accept. While Mr. Barak's new position on Jerusalem is a bold step by Israeli standards, the offer is insignificant from the Palestinian perspective since it is absurd for Israel to lay any claim to Arab East Jerusalem.

Despite their disappointment with Mr. Barak, the Palestinians should be well aware that while they can make some headway in negotiations with him there will be no progress whatsoever if negotiations are to be conducted with Mr. Netanyahu (According to an AP report, Mr. Netanyahu has declared his candidacy for the Prime Minister's post in the ensuring election). The problem, of course, is that the Palestinians have gone beyond the point where they will be satisfied with ``some'' headway. At the same time, they know that the only chance for Mr. Barak to win the election is if he can go to his electorate with the outlines of an agreement which will put an end to the Israel- Palestine conflict. The conditions are ripe for some really hard bargaining. But the means and methods for conducting such a bargain are extremely difficult at the moment.

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Section  : International
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