Delay in Florida hardens N. Korean position

From F.J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, DEC. 11. When the U.S. Secretary of State, Ms. Madeleine Albright, visited Pyongyang in October, it did raise hopes that the U.S. President, Mr. Bill Clinton, would follow up with a historic opening that would widen the bridge between North Korea and the West.

As each day passes without the impasse in the U.S. Presidential contest being unresolved, it makes it very difficult for North Korea to make and seek concessions on which a new U.S. President would be able to deliver. The North Korean leadership has been seen as being very adept at reading domestic political trends that impact on foreign policy, especially in the U.S. and North Korea.

Mr. Bush's advisors had indicated that they would adopt a tougher line on North Korea. This may or may not turn out to be true, if Mr. Bush succeeds Mr. Clinton, but for face value assessment purposes, it is sufficient to caution Mr. Kim Jong Il and prompt him not to place his missiles on the bargaining counter. This caution acquires added significance in the context of the present super charged partisan atmosphere in Washington DC, and the considerable difficulty any U.S. President is expected to encounter in getting Congressional approval for economic aid to North Korea in return for Pyongyang abandoning its long range missile programme.

The Clinton Administration's National Security Advisor, Mr. Samuel Berger, told a news conference last week that there was still a possibility of Mr. Clinton visiting Pyongyang before his term expires on January 20. The basis of Mr. Berger's cautious optimism does not seem to have come across clearly to analysts.

There has been no corresponding positive indication at all from Pyongyang. So far as is known there have been no known high level meetings between U.S. and North Korean officials to narrow down the differences sufficiently enough to produce a Clinton visit.

The Albright mission fairly late in October was followed by a hurriedly arranged three-day session in Kuala Lumpur between high level officials from the U.S. and North Korea to discuss missile related trade offs. That meeting, in early November, ended with U.S. officials commenting that ``significant issues'' remained unexplored and unresolved. That put paid to hopes that Mr. Clinton would round off his east Asia-Pacific summit and Vietnam visits in November with a historic visit to North Korea.

Terms like ``step by step'' progress, ``there was no time-table'' were employed by American officials to gloss over the lack of adequate progress in talks on missile issues. The U.S. State Department spokesman also said that the goal of the Kuala Lumpur talks were to ``clarify positions,'' leaving students wondering what exactly was achieved in seven hours of talks in Pyongyang between Mr. Kim and Ms. Albright.

It became fairly obvious that all that the Kuala Lumpur talks did were to keep the door open to a visit. There was much anticipation that Ms. Albright might announce a breakthrough in a speech to the National Press Club.

But, speaking even before the U.S.-North Korean talks were formally concluded, she said ``America's immediate interest is to make gains on core security issues,'' notably an end to North Korea's missile development programme, a permanent moratorium on long range missile tests and restrictions on exports of North's missiles and technology to Pakistan, Iran etc.

The U.S. agreed to facilitate arrangements for the launch of North Korea's non-military satellites by third parties.

The stumbling block, according to Ms. Albright was, that Mr. Kim had not clarified what North Korea expects by way of direct economic assistance in return for curbs on the missile programme.

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Section  : International
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