Europeans foresee closer ties with U.S.

By Batuk Gathani

BRUSSELS, DEC. 14. The average Europeans' ambivalence to the U.S. presidential election after weeks of legal wrangling may perhaps be justified. This is happening amid the growing perception in major European Union capitals that a subtle ``shift in emphasis'' in Euro-American relationship could be in the offing with the advent of the Bush administration. Although senior European Government officials and politicians may have hoped for a Gore victory, they are coming to terms with the advent of the Bush era, which has raised wider expectations on Euro-American trade and security fronts.

Most Europeans agree that much will depend on Mr. Bush's ability to launch a dialogue of reconciliation and seek commonality of purpose amid his supporters and adversaries, in a nation that is equally divided. The European media has been impressed by Mr. Bush's record on this score and praise has been lavished on his ability to seek consensus among political adversaries. This is rated as Mr. Bush's ``star quality'' and is widely described as more amiable, approachable and a ``good communicator.''

Mr Bush is ``neither an ideologue nor pedantic'' but described as a ``pragmatist and a dedicated achiever.'' Important sections of European media have blamed Mr Gore's ``stiffness in human relations'' and ``bad tactical campaigning'' for not fully exploiting eight years of prosperity of the Clinton era. This is widely attributed as the cause of Mr Gore's downfall. Commentators were impressed by the tone and sentiments of both the leaders' television speeches where they pledged to work for national reconciliation.

The average European is also amazed by the seemingly minor role that foreign policy played in the U.S. poll campaign. In major European capitals, there is concern about the enormous military and diplomatic might of the world's sole remaining superpower. Among the E.U. countries, the U.S. has rated Germany as the ``most important'' among its allies, although Britain claims to have a ``special relationship'' with the U.S.

Little is known of Mr. Bush's views on international issues. His critics say he has a ``superficial'' knowledge of international affairs and almost no experience in foreign policy. The Europeans feel that Mr. Bush may be constrained by a sceptical American public and split Congress and this may hamper his ability to pursue any ambitious foreign policy or trade agenda. The general view is that Mr. Bush, like Mr. Bill Clinton, may adopt centrist global policies.

The 15 E.U. member states have also embarked on a more intimate trans-Atlantic dialogue for a stronger U.S.-E.U. partnership amid the growing realisation that the U.S. is poised to remain as the most powerful economy in the world. After nearly a decade of prosperity and economic growth, dark clouds are gathering on the U.S. horizon with prospects of a recession and the current debate on both sides of the Atlantic is whether the economy will have a ``hard'' or ``soft'' landing.

Many feel that the U.S. is investing more resources and efforts in the Asia-Pacific region and on managing relations particularly with China and Japan, as the U.S. Congress is becoming less internationalist and more protectionist and assertive. The Bush victory is rated as a likely boost for the markets. As a financial commentator puts it, ``in theory, a less interventionist Republican administration should be good for equities.''

The E.U. Governments are evolving their own foreign and security policy. The other day, Mr. William Cohen, the outgoing U.S. Defence Secretary, told NATO members that Europe's defence plans in the background of structuring a new army could be damaging for NATO. He said Britain was endangering NATO because it ``pursues a leadership role in Europe'' while France was trying to ``weaken'' and undermine the U.S.

Mr. Cohen's comments raised many eyebrows in Europe. It remains to be seen how the Bush administration will cope with the challenges of what one European official described as the ``crises of uncertainty and enigma''.

Many Europeans also feel that the Bush administration is likely to pursue ``less emotive and committed'' policies with Israel and may develop a healthy appreciation of the Arab perceptions of major West Asian issues.

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