India may miss Clinton sensitivity

By Hasan Suroor

LONDON, DEC. 24. Independent British security experts have said India is unlikely to get the same ``attention'' from the Bush administration as it did from the U.S. President, Mr. Bill Clinton. Their preliminary assessment is that New Delhi is going to miss the sensitivity which Mr. Clinton showed to its security concerns, particularly after the Kargil conflict.

The perception is that Mr. Clinton often betrayed a ``pro-India tilt'' which gave New Delhi a diplomatic advantage in its difficulties with Islamabad. ``This is going to change,'' according to Mr. Paul Beaver, spokesman for Jane's.

The Bush administration is not likely to identify itself strongly with either side. To that extent, Islamabad has reason to be more comfortable with the new regime, Mr. Beaver said speaking to The Hindu at a year-end review of strategic affairs, organised for foreign correspondents. Mr. Beaver, who runs his own think-tank, said Mr. Bush was likely to take a less passionate view of India- Pakistan affairs and would not get as directly involved as Mr. Clinton did. This would be consistent with the emerging view of the Republican foreign policy, with its stress on a more insular America. ``I don't foresee much American interest in your (Indian) region unless, of course, there is a crisis suddenly''.

Another expert, who did not want to be quoted by name, said his hunch was that both India and Pakistan were going to be ``on the shelf'' for a while. Washington was not going to let itself be ``pushed'' by either side even if it was likely to be more gung- ho in its bid to get the two countries to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. An analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies thought that a lot of speculation about the Bush foreign policy was premature and derived from the statements of the aides of the President-elect, particularly his nominee for the National Security Advisor, Ms. Condaleeza Rice's interview to The New York Times. Dr. Dana H. Allin, who edits the Institute's journal, Survival, said Mr. Bush was not yet clear about his foreign policy aims. The thinking in the Republican camp had been ``frozen'' for eight years and it would take time to crystallise in the context of present challenges. Whether it was Europe or elsewhere, it would be better to wait and watch.

The decision of India and Pakistan to cease fire in Kashmir and the conciliatory tone of their recent exchanges have been welcomed here, but a view in independent circles is that such initiatives would serve a purpose only if they are taken to their ``logical'' conclusion. ``You have to discuss Kashmir and get it out of the way,'' an analyst said, adding he was not discussing the merit of the Kashmir issue but simply making the point that unless the ``bull is taken by the horn'' piecemeal fire-fighting would not help.

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Section  : International
Previous : China not to take part in global fleet review
Next     : Saudi Arabia denies 'buying' Sharif's freedom