Delhi abuzz with rumours of mid-term poll

By K.K. Katyal

NEW DELHI, DEC. 25. It is bizarre but it is there. Political tongues are wagging on the chances of a mid-term poll next year.

The Vajpayee Government assumed office barely 15 months ago. In the absence of threats of derailment or challenges from adversaries, NDA leaders sought to strike confident postures and talked of the Government completing its five-year term, that is till September 2004. But all of a sudden, some in the Opposition harbour a feeling that another election may be round the corner. ``Ridiculous,'' say BJP seniors, describing it as a figment of imagination of their opponents.

One dismisses such talk as the meaningless chatter of political busybodies who run out of speculative stories. But what does one do when the talk persists - when Congress leaders speak of the BJP's ``hidden plan'', when foreign ambassadors inquire whether there is a grain of truth in it, when it figures in whispered conversations at various Iftar parties in the capital in the midst of big-wigs who, by their presence, invest these functions with pronounced political overtones?

The rationale of the plunge contemplated by the BJP, according to its detractors, is sought to be based on sudden twists in the contemporary situation, in particular, the high profile given to the Ayodhya temple issue by the Prime Minister, Mr. A.B. Vajpayee, the consequent tension in the ruling alliance and the conflicting pressures on him - from Sangh Parivar hardliners on the one hand, and the allies on the other with one pulling him towards the temple, the other away from it.

These points are amplified as follows:

(1) Mr. Vajpayee's statements that the movement for a temple was an expression of national sentiment and that there could be an agreement between Hindus and Muslims are part of a well-planned strategy to revive the issue, seen as having the potential for swaying the majority community throughout the country and helping the BJP at the hustings.

(2) The restiveness of some BJP allies could, at some stage, lead to a rupture, to the detriment of the NDA. The Opposition may exploit such a situation and work towards realignments and a viable alternative. The BJP may like to thwart this by pre- emptive action - by calling for fresh elections in the hope of reducing its reliance on the allies; and,

(3) The Congress, struggling to overcome the demoralisation which set in after it won its lowest ever tally in the Lok Sabha, is considered capable of recovering lost ground on the basis of the anti-incumbency factor, if not on its own strength. The BJP may like to deny it the time and opportunity.

The BJP, its opponents say, may use the Assembly polls due next year - in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Pondicherry and an advanced schedule for Uttar Pradesh - to call for fresh Lok Sabha elections.

The announcement of the schedule for construction of a Ram temple during the ``sadhu sammelan'' at the Kumbh mela in Allahabad from January 19 to 21 next could serve as the start of a campaign to be used politically later.

One has not to give respectability to this speculative, almost gossipy stuff by discussing constitutional or political questions like these - will the President be bound to accept the advice for premature dissolution of the Lok Sabha or will he explore the possibility of an alternative? Is the new Congress strategy to concentrate on attacking the Prime Minister and trying to dent his image related to the election talk?

One has to ignore the speculation but needs to examine the how and why of it nonetheless.

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Section  : National
Next     : Govt. must explain Red Fort security lapse: Cong.