Syrian presence thins out in Beirut

By Kesava Menon

BEIRUT, DEC. 25.For a few days in the beginning of this month, the big news here was that the Syrian troops had pulled out of Lebanon's capital. Then the press took another look and concluded that not all of them were gone. But the Syrian presence has definitely thinned out and, more remarkably, the Lebanese have begun publicly stating the view that the nature of their country's relationship with Syria should be reviewed.

Syrian soldiers were definitely far more visible in the streets of Beirut a few months ago than they are now. They, and their star-emblazoned pill boxes, can still be seen adjacent to the war-battered buildings where they are billeted. But the few Syrian soldiers that can be seen in these buildings are on sentry duty suggesting that they are mainly here till the remains of their gear can be shifted and the concomitant administrative mess cleared. Their presence is far more pronounced in numbers and activity in the Beqaa Valley. All told, the Syrians do seem to be implementing the terms of the Taif accord that they should relocate to the Beqaa.

The Syrian troop redeployment occurred after, or simultaneously with, demands to this effect aired by Lebanese religious and political figures. The Maronite Archbishop Rev. Nasrallah Btrous Sfeir, has been the most vocal of those who voiced the demand but he was also joined by Mr. Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader who has been close to the Syrian leadership in the past. Some of the leading lights of Lebanese journalism also expressed similar sentiments.

These pronouncements reveal the sense of confidence that sections of the Lebanese society have begun to feel after the leadership change in Syria. There is a sense that Syria's President, Dr. Bashar al Assad, does not yet have the ability to control events in this country in the same manner as his father did and also a belief that he is not inclined that way either. (After all, Dr. Bashar did not intervene in the recent parliamentary elections or in the choice of Prime Minister to the same degree as the Syrian leadership was won't to do in the past). But the Syrian troop redeployment was surely not induced solely by the comments from the Lebanese leaders.

The ending of Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon in May this year had some bearing on the Syrian decision, diplomats here believe. So long as Israel maintained a threatening military posture inside Lebanon there was merit in the Syrian position that they had to keep their soldiers in all parts of their host country to ensure its protection. This position has now obviously become unviable to an extant.

Its army's overwhelming presence in Lebanon was also injecting some awkwardness in Syria's conduct of foreign policy. Syria's economy is not in a rosy condition and they have begun out of their traditional isolation and seeking closer engagement with the rest of the world. Pointed criticism of their presence in Lebanon is something Syria can do without. The Pope, who supported the Rev. Sfeir's call, was the latest to echo what some other European leaders (those of Italy and France in particular) have been saying for some time. Then, of course, the U.S. administration is not exactly overjoyed that Syria keeps a part of its army in Lebanon.

Some analysts here believe that the Syrians would like to thin out their presence in this country on calculations of their domestic interests as well. The young conscripts in their army may be easily influenced by the relatively more liberal political and social atmosphere of Lebanon. The Syrian leadership might be preparing itself for greater openness with the rest of the world. But they want to do so at their own pace and do not want to be hustled by forces they cannot control.

All said and done, however, the bed-rock on which Syria bases its influence over Lebanon continues. Its apparatus for maintaining that influence has been never as visible as its uniformed personnel. That apparatus has not been dismantled.

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Section  : International
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