Fragile neighbourliness

THE ASTONISHING SPECTACLE of the latest anti-India rioting in Nepal over unproven rumours of some alleged derogatory remarks by a rising Hindi film actor, Mr. Hrithik Roshan, does expose (as little else may) the utter fragility of the ordinary relationship between the two culturally-kindred countries. With a general strike reportedly paralysing Kathmandu on Thursday in the wake of two days of mob frenzy and fatalities in the police action aimed at quelling it, the emergent new crisis in bilateral ties calls for concerted efforts at statesmanship. Outwardly, the current unrest may indeed seem to be more vandalistic than anti-Indian in political scope. Yet the diplomatic reverberations have already been felt. Theories are gaining ground in sections of New Delhi's officialdom that the anti-India hysteria of this magnitude over a perceived non-issue could have been whipped up in Nepal only by some malevolent external forces inimical to India's stakes in fraternal ties with the Himalayan kingdom. Not surprisingly, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) wing is the prime suspect in the eyes of the Indian security agencies monitoring the events in Nepal. The danger now is that New Delhi's bilateral dealings with Kathmandu may fall victim to a perception of Nepal emerging, if unchecked by its own authorities, as a playground for the ISI's suspected anti-India agenda. Any such denouement in the short-run will mark a clear reversal of the `gains' made during the visit to India by the Nepalese Prime Minister, Mr. Girija Prasad Koirala, last August.

Nepal's geographical location as a natural `buffer' state (not necessarily in a political sense) between India and China has long been a consideration in the often skewed diplomatic equation between New Delhi and Kathmandu. The conventional diplomatic wisdom is that Nepal can truly affirm its sovereignty and gain the goodwill of both India and China only by keeping each of them guessing about Kathmandu's political proximity to the other. Despite the 1950 Indo-Nepalese treaty, which bound the two countries to a special relationship, New Delhi had in the past grappled with dilemmas regarding the extent of Kathmandu's suspected penchant for playing the so-called China card. China will conceivably remain a factor in Indo-Nepal ties. Yet, New Delhi's more recent concerns have had much to do with Pakistan's alleged ability to utilise Nepal as a presumptive `soft-state' to bring India under a greater threat of terrorism. The suspected ISI-organised smuggling of huge quantities of RDX explosives into India through Nepal in 1998 marked the first major security- related analysis of this kind in New Delhi's officialdom. The brazen hijacking of an Indian Airlines plane from Kathmandu to Kandahar a year ago raised these concerns in New Delhi to the state of a critical foreign policy challenge.

While Mr. Koirala's visit to New Delhi seemed to have nearly placed the bilateral ties back on course, the latest anti-India rage should serve as a new warning against complacency. The political psyche of Nepal as a land-locked country is rooted in its clamour for a logistically less arduous transit-corridor to the sealanes through India. This aspect has been reasonably addressed by India over time after a diplomatic brinkmanship by both sides during Rajiv Gandhi's prime ministership. Two other sensitive issues remain to be sorted out. Nepal seeks to retain the benefits of its 1950 treaty with India sans the perceived ``unequal'' provisions thereof. There can be no doubt that this question should be resolved to mutual satisfaction. It appeared during Mr. Koirala's recent tour of India that the two sides wished to move forward on this front. The issue of clearing doubts over the exact `alignment' of the boundary at the China- Nepal-India trijunction is being studied by a committee set up by New Delhi and Kathmandu. The question is whether China, too, will be associated with this process as reportedly indicated by some Nepalese officials.

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