CSO puts GDP growth rate at 6 p.c. in Q2

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, DEC. 29. There has been some pick-up in the growth rate of the economy with the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) putting the 2000-01 second quarter growth rate at 6 per cent against 5.7 per cent in the same period last year.

The provisional 2000-01 first quarter growth rate of 5.8 per cent was, however, lower than the revised 6.9 per cent growth during the first quarter of last year, leading to reports of a slowdown in the economy.

According to the CSO, gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices (1993-94 prices) for the second quarter of 2000-01 was estimated at Rs. 265,392 crores, about 6 per cent higher than the Rs. 250,434 crores recorded in the same quarter of the previous year.

The sectors which registered significant growth in the second quarter are mining and quarrying at 8.4 per cent, manufacturing at 5.9 per cent, construction at 8.7 per cent, trade, hotels, transport and communications at 7.8 per cent, financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 8.5 per cent and community, social and personal services at 7.1 per cent. The growth rate in agriculture, forestry and fishing has been estimated at one per cent and that of electricity, gas and water supply at 3.9 per cent.

Comparative figures for the first quarter show mining and quarrying at 5.6 per cent growth, manufacturing at six per cent, construction at 8.5 per cent, trade, hotels, transport and communications at 8.1 per cent, financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 8.3 per cent and community, social and personal services at 6.9 per cent. Agricultural, forestry and fishing sector grew 1.3 per cent in the first quarter while electricity, gas and water supply grew 6.6 per cent in that period.

On the agricultural front, information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation has shown that the production of rice and coarse cereals has declined by 2.1 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively, during the kharif season of 2000-01, over the corresponding period last year. However, production of pulses has registered a positive growth rate of 14.6 per cent during the kharif season.

Among commercial crops, oilseeds have registered a negative growth rate of 3.5 per cent during the kharif season while production of cotton and sugarcane are expected to show growth rates of 9.8 per cent and negative 2.8 per cent, respectively during 2000-01.

As for industrial production, the latest estimates of the index of industrial production (IIP) show that the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 8.4 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively, during the second quarter of 2000-01.

The key indicators of the construction sector, cement and steel, registered growth rates of 2.6 per cent and 12.6 per cent, respectively, during second quarter this year.

Among the services sector, the key indicators of the railways, namely, the net tonne km and passenger km, have shown declines of 0.6 per and 13.8 per cent, respectively during the second quarter.

The other key indicators show that production of commercial vehicles declined by 12.8 per cent, cargo handled at major ports was down 0.3 per cent, postal and telecommunication revenue was up 37.2 per cent, aggregate bank deposits increased by 16 per cent, bank credits were up 23.8 per cent and revenue expenditure of the Central Government was up 13.5 per cent.

The CSO has also released estimates of GDP growth at current prices which show that the GDP was estimated to be Rs. 425,184 crores during the second quarter this year against Rs. 383,143 crores in the second quarter of last year. The increase works out to 11 per cent.

Pant disappointed

NEW DELHI, DEC. 29. Disappointed by less than six per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the current fiscal, the Planning Commission today conceded that seven per cent economic growth target for 2000-01 would not be achieved.

Commenting on the GDP figures released by the Government earlier in the day, the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, Mr. K. C. Pant, said, "We can at best achieve 6.5 per cent provided the economy grows by about seven per cent during the remaining part of the year."

Asked about the 7.1 per cent growth target envisaged by the Commission for the current and next financial year for attaining the Ninth Plan growth target of 6.5 per cent, Mr. Pant said realistically speaking "we cannot reach seven per cent this year."

He attributed the lower economic growth to the dismal performance in the agriculture sector saying "agriculture and allied sector recorded a growth of only 1.3 per cent and 1 per cent during the first and second quarters of the year respectively."

Even the seven per cent growth in economy during the second half of 2000-01 would depend on the recovery of the agriculture sector, which had been hit hard by vagaries of monsoon and drought in central and western India.

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