State ill-prepared to handle situation

By Roy Mathew

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, JAN. 21. The State is ill-prepared to handle a disaster arising from a major leak of hazardous chemicals, earthquakes or dam failure. This is especially true of Idukki district where chances of natural calamities are high.

Kerala has several zones where risks of major accidents and natural calamities exist. The Aluva industrial belt has several industries which use or produce hazardous chemicals.

The Indian Rare Earth there handles radioactive materials. The ammonia storage in Kochi is considered a potential risk. Release of effluents has caused fish kills in the backwaters of Vembanad. Major fires have occurred several times at the Cochin Refinery and associated structures.

Kuttanad is prone to floods and the probability of floods has increased over the years with filling up of paddy fields and construction of roads.

In Kollam district, gas leaks have occurred from the Kerala Minerals and Metals Limited. In Thiruvananthapuram, the armed forces and the units of Indian Space Research Organisation handle hazardous materials. Several districts such as Palakkad and Kozhikode have LPG bottling units where major fires can occur.

Idukki and its surrounding areas house as many as a dozen large reservoirs and double that number of dams. The district has been considered to be an earthquake-prone area. Several of the dams are in fact sitting over geographical faultlines, increasing the risk of dam failure from seismicity.

The Pampa and some of the other dams of the Sabarigiri Project in Pathanamthitta district are suffering from poor maintenance.

As far as the districts in general are concerned, the District Collectors are required to coordinate and oversee preparation of emergency action plans by the departments concerned.

However, an emergency action plan exists at least in paper only in Ernakulam district. A plan had been prepared to deal with chemical emergencies there. However, the preparedness and warning mechanisms are not sufficient.

Only people drilled in emergency would be able to carry out such plans successfully. The district's plan does not cover the emergencies arising from the failure of a dam such as Idukki.

The chances of failures of dams at Idukki are not low now. The design of the dam had taken care of only floods much lower than the probable maximum flood owing to an underestimation of probable maximum flood in the Mullaperiyar basin.

Subsequent diversion of water courses into the reservoir added to this problem. This, combined with chances of failure of the Mullaperiyar dam itself, worsens the situation further.

Failure of the Mullaperiyar dam can also lead to failure of Idukki dam if the reservoir levels are high. Though seismicity of the area is not a serious threat to the Idukki dams, the same cannot be said about the Mullaperiyar dam.

The lack of proper instrumentation for monitoring of the dams and the absence of timely compilation and analysis of the data from available instruments accentuate the risk. Besides, several of the drains of these dams are choked. This can increase pore pressures and lead to damage of the dams.

According to international practices, the Kerala State Electricity Board and Irrigation Department are required to do dam inundation studies and prepare emergency plans. (Such plans would detail the criteria required to ``trigger'' an emergency situation, and the required emergency measures. In the case of Mullaperiyar, Tamil Nadu's cooperation would also be required for preparing the plan.)

However, they have defaulted on this. Floods maps, indicating area and level of flooding in the event of a dam failure and time required for the water to reach different zones, are required for establishing alarm mechanisms and taking emergency measures.

In the absence of dam inundation studies, only guess- estimates are possible about the impact of dam failures in the State. The technical committee of Kerala Government, which examined the condition of the Mullaperiyar dam, had said that the failure of the Idukki dams (Idukki, Kulamavu and Cheruthoni) would inundate many parts of Idukki, Ernakulam and Kottayam district.

The failure of Mullaperiyar can hit the Vandiperiyar town. Failure of Idukki dams would be catastrophic. The failure of Kulamavu dam can wipe out Thodupuzha town and flood Muvattupzha. The failure of Cheruthoni or Idukki would devastate long stretches of land along the course of the Periyar river up to Aluva and Vaikom.

Practically, no rescue efforts would be possible in Idukki district. Waters from Mullaperiyar would reach Idukki within an hour. If both Cheruthoni and Kulamavu fail, the district headquarters would be cut off from the rest of the district. The devastation of important towns such as Thodupuzha would mean that no organised rescue efforts would be possible. Though evacuation and other measures would be possible for Aluva, the level of flood and other parameters are not known.

The 33-year-old Pampa dam is perhaps in a worse condition compared to the 105-year-old Mullaperiyar dam in terms of seepage and maintenance.

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