Election may not bring political stability

By Kesava Menon

TEL AVIV, FEB. 5. There are several absurd aspects to the special Prime Ministerial election that is being held in Israel on Tuesday. Among the most absurd is the fact that whoever wins the poll will find it very difficult to cobble together a coalition in Parliament that can pass the budget by March 31. If the budget is not passed by that date it will necessitate a fresh election.

If the opinion polls hold true and the front-runner, Mr. Ariel Sharon, wins he could either build a coalition composed solely of the hardline right-wing parties or reach out across the political divide and form a national unity Government. Since the hard-right has swung solidly behind Mr. Sharon, they would be most upset if he does not follow their agenda in his dealings with the Palestinians and on issues of domestic politics. Mr. Sharon's problem is that the right-wing parties, though sharing some views in common, are bitterly divided on others.

Most of the right-wing parties want an end, or at least an indefinite freezing, of negotiations with the Palestinians. However, Shas, the party of the Jews who immigrated from the African and Asian countries, does not traditionally take a very hard position on the Palestinian issue provided their partisan concerns are taken care of. Besides the special funding for their educational network, what this party which has a large bloc in Parliament, is most interested in is more strict enforcement of religious codes. Other religious parties in Mr. Sharon's putative coalition share this concern.

If Mr. Sharon succumbs to the wishes of the religious parties on matters of observance he is likely to run afoul of the two Russian parties which together have a significant parliamentary presence. Currently, the two Russian parties support a tough approach towards the Palestinians but they are just as vehemently opposed to the imposition of strict religious codes. In the immediate aftermath of the election, if Mr. Sharon wins, the focus would be on the Palestinian front but the differences over religious matters are bound to rise as the budgetary allocations are being decided.

Although it is not being shouted from the roof-tops, there is a widespread expectation here that Mr. Sharon would try and form a national unity government centred on his own Likud party and the Labour party and taking in centrist groups. The Labour party leader and current Prime Minister, Mr. Ehud Barak, has declared that he will not lead his party into a national unity government that includes extremist parties. But he has tantalisingly left open the possibility of joining a government that does not include such parties.

While the prospect of a national unity government, under either of the two leaders, is being looked on with general favour, it is difficult to see how such a government can last any length of time. The differences between Labour and Likud, in regard to the specific issues being negotiated with the Palestinians, are so sharp as to be almost unbridgeable.

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