Ulster may take a backseat till May

By Hasan Suroor

LONDON, FEB. 16.Once more, as often in the past, hopes of an early breakthrough in the Northern Ireland peace process are receding and increasingly it seems that the issue is likely to be shelved until after the general election in May.

While all the elements that combined to raise hopes of a compromise are still in place, the political will to push them has been weakened by electoral compulsions with both sides reluctant to make concessions that, they fear, might be exploited by their opponents in the build-up to the elections. Any suggestion of a ``sellout'' by either side could cost votes. Moreover, the British Government itself is in the grip of an election fever and in the coming weeks the Prime Minister, Mr. Tony Blair is going to have his hands full with the election campaign.

It is pointed out that unless there was a real chance of an immediate breakthrough Mr. Blair would rather leave things as they are at this stage and pick up the thread in his second term. Surely, he would have wished to go into the elections with the peace process in Northern Ireland back on the rails - flaunting another feather in his cap - but with far too many loose ends still to be tied up around the compromise formula being discussed, he understands that a quick fix is not possible. The political instinct in London is to play it safe - let the

sleeping dogs lie, chew over things - rather than do something which might make the situation even messier on the eve of the elections.

``....London officials have let the parties in Belfast know that Tony Blair will not spare much more of his precious time on their problems. He has an election to prepare for and has signalled that after the next week or so, he will concentrate on that rather than them,'' The Guardian said pointing out that the issue could easily slip into ``as yet another item in the in-tray of the (Labour Government's) second (term)''. The alternative scenario - a breakthrough over the next two or three weeks - would require ``all the creativity'' that the parties to the dispute are capable of, the newspaper said, describing the current situation as a ``strange kind of limbo, on the brink either of a deal or a collapse.''

More optimistic observers, however, point out that a deal is still possible - the compromise formula is very much alive - the timetable could be delayed because of elections. Broadly, the formula addresses the two main sticking points: arms decommissioning by the IRA which the Unionists insist on as a precondition before the Good Friday Agreement could move forward; and the Sinn Fein's insistence on demilitarisation which involves a sharp reduction in British security presence, particularly in Protestant areas.

The Sinn Fein is demanding dismantling of two watchtowers which overlook Republican terrain. It seems that London is inclined to oblige the Sinn Fein but first wants it to start the process of arms decommissioning and must set the ball rolling by ``re- engaging'' with John De Chastelain, the retired Canadian General who, under the Good Friday Agreement, is to oversee the decommissioning. The Sinn Fein has virtually boycotted the Chastelain commission and instead it has been talking to independent arms inspectors who, after inspecting IRA's arms dumps, have certified that the arms are not being used.

The Unionists and the British Government, however, want the arms to be put beyond the control of IRA and rendered ``unusable.'' Mere assurances and a ``phonecall'' to Gen. Chastelain - as a commentator put it - are not acceptable to the Unionists. The Ulster Unionist leader, Mr. David Trimble is under pressure from his party hardliners to pull out of the power- sharing executive with the Sinn Fein if there is no visible progress on arms decommissioning. It is believed that the British Government may even be persuaded to agree to further finetune the police reforms though not giving in fully to the Sinn Fein's demand but there can be no more concessions unless the process of arms decommissioning starts.

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