Speculation over Tin Oo successor

By Amit Baruah

SINGAPORE, FEB. 23. The death of Lt. Gen. Tin Oo, the number four man in the military Government of Myanmar, in a helicopter crash earlier this week, has led to considerable speculation about his likely successor coming from one of the two factions in the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).

In an analysis, The Straits Times said the man appointed to the job would indicate which of the two factions - one led by the Army Chief and SPDC Vice-Chairman, Gen. Maung Aye, or the other one headed by the military intelligence chief and SPDC Secretary- 1, Lt. Gen Khin Nyunt - would emerge on top.

``In reformist terms, both are hard nuts. Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt's shell is softer, but only just. The late Tin Oo, 67, as an ally of Gen. Maung Aye, was expected to take his job if the General moved up to become SPDC Chairman on Gen. Than Shwe's retirement,'' the paper argued.

However, the analysis said, Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt may now have his eye on appointing a man of his choice to the vacant position of Army Chief of Staff, the job Lt. Gen. Tin Oo held. The intelligence chief, who has had several rounds of talks with the National League for Democracy (NLD) general secretary, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, was described as the ``public face'' of the regime; the man that visiting diplomats met in Yangon.

``Gen. Maung Aye, on the other hand, is a solid Army man and is thought to be suspicious of any moves to accommodate Ms. Suu Kyi. He is also an opponent of economic liberalisation. The leaning of Lt. Gen. Tin Oo's replacement will suggest which of these two men's star is on the ascendant,'' the newspaper said.

``Myanmar watchers say the death of Lt. Gen. Tin Oo is a loss to Gen. Maung Aye. Considered a tough soldier and respected within Army circles, he was hated by the ethnic minorities... diplomats say a culture of fear within the regime prevents insiders speaking about what is going on. Lt. Gen Tin Oo's replacement may say nothing, but who he is will speak volumes,'' the newspaper added.

It is not clear when a successor would be appointed though a military funeral for Lt. Gen. Tin Oo was held today in Yangon.

Interestingly, those familiar with Myanmar say that while Gen. Maung Aye is a veteran of many a battle against the communist guerillas and ethnic insurgents, Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt has never been a fighting man.

Given the fact that this counts for a lot in the military, it is evident that Gen. Maung Aye commands considerable support from the rank and file of the Army.

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Section  : International
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