Counting on allies

Neither the AIADMK nor the DMK could afford to ignore the smaller parties and newly-formed caste-based outfits, writes Suresh Nambath, with inputs from M. R. Venkatesh and Radha Venkatesan.

TAMIL NADU is known for extreme swings in the voter mood. In 1991, the AIADMK swept the polls leaving just one seat for its principal opposition, the DMK. And, five years later, the DMK rode an anti-establishment wave, losing just four constituencies to the AIADMK.

But, 2001 promises to be different. If the manner in which the AIADMK and the DMK have struck alliances with smaller parties is any indication, this election could even pave the way for a coalition government.

True, from the very beginning most parties saw little scope and less hope for a third front independent of the AIADMK and the DMK. But, at the same time, it was obvious that neither the AIADMK nor the DMK could afford to ignore the smaller parties and the newly-formed caste-based outfits. Despite a polarisation, the apprehension of a tight finish to the electoral race necessitated, for both the AIADMK and the DMK, tie-ups with every prospective ally.

And after concluding electoral pacts with the smaller parties, the AIADMK is left with just 141 seats, the lowest it is contesting since its inception in 1972. The DMK fared only marginally better. After all the haggling, the party is left with 155 seats, far below its strength of 166 in the current Assembly.

In the AIADMK-led front, the major ally, the TMC, sought to reduce the AIADMK share of the seats so as to increase its own bargaining position in the post-election scenario. Though dissatisfied with the 32 seats it got from the AIADMK, the TMC, which is keen on power-sharing, is now hoping to get its fingers in the power pie if the AIADMK falls short of a majority.

The TMC is also banking on the possibility of the electoral disqualification of the AIADMK general secretary, Ms. Jayalalitha, for increasing its space in the AIADMK-led front.

As a senior TMC leader puts it: ``The ideal situation for us would be the AIADMK depending on not just the PMK, but also the TMC- Congress bloc for forming a government.''

Although the allies of the DMK are not pushing for a coalition government, they were very assertive during seat-sharing negotiations. The BJP, which heads the Government at the Centre, got what it wanted. The MDMK, another key ally, was on the offensive not only in seat negotiations but also in the talks for identification of constituencies for fielding its candidates, thus taking the relationship with the DMK to a breaking point.

But the ``desperation'' of the DMK became most evident in the way the Chief Minister and DMK president, Mr. M. Karunanidhi, went about accommodating the caste-based outfits.

As the AIADMK had cultivated the Thevars, the numerically-strong backward class community in the south, for its vote-bank, and another constituent of the AIADMK-led front, the PMK, had consolidated the Vanniars, a most backward class community in the north, Mr. Karunanidhi felt the need to fashion an ``equally strong front'' by bringing together the Dalits and the other backward classes into the DMK fold. Among the first to be roped in were the Puthiya Tamizhagam led by Dr. K. Krishnasamy and the Dalit Panthers led by Mr. R. Thirumavalavan. Significantly, both PT and DPI define their politics in the Southern and Northern belts respectively in opposition to the Thevars and the Vanniars.

Subsequently, the DMK chief successfully negotiated with the Makkal Tamil Desam Katchi which claims the backing of the Yadava community. And discussions are on with the New Justice Party, an organisation with the Mudaliars, another backward class community in the north, as a support- base. Both the MTDK and the NJP are electorally untested parties, but apparently Mr. Karunanidhi, who offered six seats to each, felt that he could not do without them.

Besides, Mr. Karunanidhi wooed into his front the Tamil Nadu Mutharaiyar Sangham and the Kongu Nadu Makkal Katchi which are trying to convert the Mutharaiyars and the Kongu Vellalars as their vote-bank.

The DMK reasoning is that certain backward class groups are aspiring for a ``political identity'' following the electoral success of the Vanniar-based PMK.

Although there are a fewer number of parties in the AIADMK-led front, Ms. Jayalalitha, like Mr. Karunanidhi, sought and won the support of several caste-based parties. The difference was that she did not think it necessary to give all of them seats.

However, unlike the usual AIADMK practice of winning one major ally, this time Ms. Jayalalitha did not stop with luring just the PMK. As the TMC and the Congress threatened to walk out of the front, she accommodated them even at the cost of cutting down the AIADMK's own share of the seats. And, now, the 141 seats the party is contesting might not be enough for a majority of its own unless there is a landslide win for the front. To make matters worse, only three of its allies would contest on the AIADMK symbol.

This contrasts with the more than 15 additional seats that the allies of the DMK would contest on the DMK symbol. The DMK, sensing a hung Assembly and hoping to avoid power-sharing, insisted that all the smaller allies fight on its symbol. The party thus ensured that all the members of the allied parties would attract the provisions of the Anti-Defection Act if they choose to break away from the DMK.

For the Left parties and the Congress, the stakes are not high in this election. Indeed, both the CPI and the CPI(M) settled for eight seats each, their lowest in the last two decades. The Left parties are focussed only on defeating the BJP-inclusive DMK-led front.

As for the Congress, which held power till 1967, it is blissfully innocent of any ambition for power. The party is awaiting a merger with the TMC in the none-too-distant future.

Actually, the Congress swallowed its reservations over the pro- LTTE PMK, only because it wanted to sail with the TMC towards Destination Merger. A unified Congress, the TNCC hopes, would increase its political clout.

All this means that the struggle for power is unlikely to end with the announcement of the electoral results. Indeed, that might only mark the beginning of another phase in the struggle.

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