Crafting an alliance

A lot of diplomatic work lies ahead before the idea of strategic cooperation between India and the U.S. is translated into reality, writes C. RAJA MOHAN.

IN HIS brief but intense one day visit to the United States last week, the External Affairs Minister, Mr. Jaswant Singh, has set the stage for the next act in the unfolding saga of Indo-U.S. relations. He has won an agreement for a positive story line from the new cast of characters on the American side.

The big new idea is about crafting an alliance between New Delhi and Washington. However, the skeletal idea of strategic cooperation between the two nations would require a great deal of fleshing out. At the moment the proposed alliance is but an agreed thought; a lot of diplomatic work lies ahead before the idea is translated into reality.

Mr. Singh travelled to the U.S. with two basic objectives - one was to find out if the Bush Administration was willing to sustain the American enthusiasm for India generated in the final year of the Clinton presidency. The other was to explore the prospects for raising the relationship to a higher level.

On the first, there was a clear commitment from the U.S. President, Mr. George W. Bush, that he wants to build on the recent gains in Indo-U.S. relations. On the second, all the signals from the new American leadership are positive. The most important signal from Washington was that it might be ready to work on one huge missing link in the expanding Indo-U.S. relations - military cooperation. Is an alliance, then, between India and the U.S. on the cards?

Two and a half years ago, following the nuclear tests of May 1998, the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, surprised his audiences in the U.S. by declaring just that. When Mr. Vajpayee went to the U.S. again, American scepticism about the idea of an alliance with India, was yielding place to a mild interest.

Unlike the Clinton Administration which focussed on global multilateralism to promote American interests, the Bush Administration is oriented toward the realpolitik of alliances. The indications during Mr. Jaswant Singh's visit are that the Bush Administration might be willing to run with the idea of a natural alliance between India and the U.S.

As Mr. Bush's National Security Adviser, Ms. Condoleezza Rice, told Mr. Singh, India has now earned its place at the table of global powers. This is a big shift from the Clinton Administration's view that perceived India in the narrow of prism of the Subcontinent.

The past policy focus in Washington was limited to issues arising out of the tensions between India and Pakistan. The U.S. may now be ready to engage India within the larger framework of a global balance of power.

An alliance implies a set of political interests between two powers. It is not difficult to define that set. Among the converging interests between India and the U.S. are: the maintenance of peace in the Indian Ocean, ensuring the free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf at reasonable prices, the safeguarding of sealanes in the region, prevention of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the preservation of a stable balance of power in Asia.

Military cooperation to pursue common interests is the other defining element of any alliance between two or more great powers. But there is hardly any between India and the U.S. Repeated attempts in the 1990s at building military interaction after the Cold War spluttered. And after May 1998, the U.S. imposed sanctions against defence ties with India, including on high-level contacts between the two military establishments.

But in receiving Mr. Singh, who is also the Defence Minister, with full protocol at the Pentagon, the U.S. Defence Secretary, Mr. Donald Rumsfeld, was signalling that Washington will not let the sanctions come in the way of a more intensive military engagement with New Delhi.

India wants more than an interaction between the two services that has been announced; it will be looking for more strategic discussions between the two security establishments at the civilian level as well as the renewal of transfer of defence technologies from the U.S.

Meanwhile, the Indian Cabinet is likely to clear the long-delayed General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with the U.S. Will a prospective Indo-U.S. alliance be targeted against China? The answer is no. Mr. Singh has clarified that India wants its relationship with the U.S. to stand on its own merit. Just as New Delhi has objected to being treated as a Siamese twin of Pakistan all these years, it will not want its American connection to be predicated on the ups and downs of Sino-U.S. relations.

At any rate, despite the latest tensions, relations between Washington and Beijing are deeper and wider than either Indo-U.S. ties or the Sino-Indian equation. India is determined to improve its relations with both the U.S. and China.

Even as it seeks to expand military cooperation with the U.S., it will remain focussed on solving its many bilateral problems with China.

Neither India nor the U.S. would want to build an exclusive military alliance targeted against a third country. The new military cooperation between New Delhi and Washington will be part of a multiple engagement among all the major powers in Asia- Pacific region. In East and South East Asia it will be integral to promoting a credible balance of power within the region. In the Persian Gulf, the military interaction would be about building a coalition of regional actors and great powers to promote energy security.

Those in India looking for an Indo-U.S. alliance targeted at third countries such as China might be disappointed. Besides it is important to remember that the military engagement between the two countries is starting from a very low base. It will be a while before the two military establishments develop institutional familiarity and a strategic culture of effectively working together to achieve common objectives.

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Section  : Opinion
Previous : India, the U.S. and China's long shadow