Factions and posturings

THE WEEK-OLD CRISIS in the Congress(I) on the poll front in Kerala, triggered by its veteran leader, Mr. K. Karunakaran, much to the consternation of its partners in the UDF, has been resolved, with the party high command going rather out of the way to mollify him by agreeing to accommodate his `loyalists' in three more constituencies and, in the process, bringing about parity between his group and that of his traditional rival, Mr. A. K. Antony, in numerical terms. Out of the 88 seats the party is contesting, these two major camps have got 37 seats each, the rest being shared by the other two distinctly identifiable groups. If factional feud is endemic to the Congress(I) in the State, angry outbursts and open, often intimidatory, defiance of the party leadership by a `wronged' or `slighted' Mr. Karunakaran have acquired an element of weary predictability particularly after his ouster from the Chief Ministership in 1995, just a year ahead of the 1996 Assembly elections. And almost invariably, the party high command has been accommodative, even when the demands were known to be driven purely by his personal and factional interests. It is not very different this time either.

Although an impression was sought to be created that his `revolt' had to do with his daughter, Ms. Padmaja Venugopal, not being nominated for an Assembly seat, Mr. Karunakaran was in fact playing for much higher political stakes, with an eye on the post-election scenario. As one who had never reconciled himself to his unceremonious exit from the post of Chief Minister in 1995, only to make way for his bete noire, Mr. Antony, he has evidently been wanting to wipe out and avenge that ignominy. Every move of his in the Assembly poll context fits into the overall strategy of positioning himself at a vantage point vis-a- vis other factions in the party so that the `key' to the choice of Chief Minister would be with him; this of course is premised on the UDF emerging with a majority in the new Assembly, which itself is considered a distinct possibility, given the Kerala electorate's tendency to alternate its preference between the two coalitions. Having first got the high command to agree to not project anyone as the Chief Ministerial nominee and to leave the choice to the party legislators themselves, Mr. Karunakaran obviously wanted to maximise the chances of his `men' constituting the largest contingent within the party's MLAs. And he could not have asked for more than what has now been offered. There is of course the larger issue of his perceived grievance of not being consulted or taken into confidence by the party leadership on national concerns still to be sorted out.

By its intervention, the Congress(I) high command may have neutralised the Mr. Karunakaran-specific potential damage. It is however a moot question whether, in the wake of such correction, the overall electoral prospects of the party as also of the UDF remain undiminished. Although Mr. Antony has, in his own characteristic way, agreed to abide by the party's decision - even if it is a ``painful'' one - there is every possibility of the rebel factor from the rival factions making its presence felt in the constituencies affected by the reopening of candidates' list. Given the sort of animus and rancour that has come to define the attitude of the two major factions towards each other, it may not come as a surprise at all if they worked at cross purposes at the hustings, each camp seeking to sabotage the chances of the party's nominee belonging to the rival group. To say, as the Congress(I) men often do, that factions only strengthen, not weaken, the party is not even convincing political rhetoric. But the point is that there is the real risk of their starting to believe it to be so and this may well prove harmful for the UDF, given Kerala's highly polarised political context and the BJP's desperate attempt to carve out some credible electoral space for itself as a third force.

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Section  : Opinion
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