Japanese voters face tough choice on Tuesday

By F.J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, APRIL. 21. Voters of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are offered two sets of broad choices on Tuesday. Either accept a dirty election in public or a closed selection process in so- called smoke-filled backrooms.

The other option is, choose between a Prime Minister, once humiliated and a revolutionary seeking to overturn the LDP's faction based foundation. The winner will also become Prime Minister because of the LDP's strength in the Lower House.

It is now between Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto, 63, the leader of the largest faction that carries his name and Mr. Junichiro Koizumi, 59, who has just left the second largest Mori faction to make the point that he opposes the party's present power-sharing system.

Standing beside him is the country's most popular politician, Ms. Makiko Tanaka, who has long been faction- less and is voted the first choice among the people as their clear choice. There are two other candidates, one notional, the other who enters the market only if neither Mr. Hashimoto nor Mr. Koizumi fail to make it by a simple majority in the first round of voting.

Mr. Taro Aso, 60, belonging to the Kono faction, is the Economic and Fiscal Reforms Minister but an honest non- candidate. Not since 1982 has the LDP fielded so many in one leadership rescue attempt.

Finally, there is Mr. Shizuka Kamei, 64, an ex-cop. As the policy affairs chief of the LDP, he was Mr. Mori's strongest backer with 55 seats in the control of the Eto-Kamei faction. It is his entry into the fray that will make the contest quite dirty and may even decide the LDP's fate in the upcoming summer elections to half the Upper House.

Tuesday's battle lines are: the Hashimoto faction 102 (factional strengths in Diet only, do not include local, regional cadre), Mori (59), Eto-Kamei (55), Horiuchi (43, allied to Mr. Hashimoto), plus a few smaller factions, groups. A major unknown is the prefectural chapters' representatives with 141, largely believed to favour Mr. Koizumi.

The major and clever reason for Mr. Koizumi running a campaign apparently devoid of faction is the confidence he enjoys among the rank and file. Pro-Hashimoto party elders were earlier loathe to give more power to the voting power of the 47 prefectures (States) but had to succumb at a level of three per province as they reflect the real view of the 2.37 million strong party cadre.

Divided into numerous groups purportedly representing construction, postal, doctors, nurses, land, railways, etc, as well as 760,000 unaffiliated, they are already voting and their preferences will be clear only by Monday night.

These 2.37 millions who will vote through 141 representatives effectively represent one third of the 487 ballots in the LDP Presidential election but none can garner or rely on a final win because of the strength in the prefectures alone. Therefore, while overtly opposing factions, Mr. Koizumi must fall back on his old non-mainstream YKK alliance of Yamasaki, Kato and Koizumi, a total of about 97, if all voted loyally.

A four-way public debate showed up economic policy and differences on party reform. They cloak the real bargaining through numbers but some are worth mentioning. Mr. Kamei alone favours a consumption tax roll back.

He and Mr. Aso favour fiscal reform, Mr. Koizumi backs it but Mr. Hashimoto was forced by factions to a more neutral position as an apology that they could sell to their constituencies and housewives, if he wanted the support of the whole faction. He complied and has begged for 200 days to plan ``something.''

Finally, where they really stand out, other than the faction issue, is on Mr. Koizumi's lone and long held position in support of privatising postal operations and savings.

This would not only deprive the power factions of a reliable fund mechanism for the bigger factions, especially the Hashimoto faction but a source of influence for 250,000 retired postal managers too at local levels. Mr. Koizumi's central platform was, ``without structural reform there is no economic recovery.'' His clever tactic to paint himself into a corner of the contest becoming a him versus they affair.

At his most aggressive in propagating postal reform, the maverick politician attacked political mismanagement of the public's safest vault, the approximately $2.5 trillion, where the annual return is just 0.04 per cent. This has encouraged public waste projects like dams or schools with one student and eight teachers. Shifting opinion polls show Mr. Hasimoto with just below 20 per cent, Mr. Koizumi drawing over 50 per cent, with the other two in single digits.

The outcome of the first ballot is not expected to be that clear cut. That is where the LDP faces a great dilemma. In a bludgeoning, dirty style that has become typical of him, the Hashimoto faction's effective boss, Mr. Hiromu Nonaka, said if Mr. Hashimoto wins, he would like to see Mr. Kamei retain his post as party policy chief.

If this scenario unfolds, at it may well, Mr. Hashimoto could get what he wants, as could Mr. Kamei, but only till July's Upper House poll, which is what this election is all about. The public would be outraged for the LDP bosses not getting the wider message and might send a reminder like it did in June last year, when in Tokyo, six incumbent and former P.M.s from the capital's constituencies failed to be re-elected.

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