An anniversary Sri Lanka would like to forget

By Nirupama Subramanian

COLOMBO, APRIL 21. Exactly a year ago, Sri Lanka faced what looked like certain military defeat at the hands of the LTTE. The LTTE had wrested control of the garrison at Elephant Pass on April 22. The soldiers at the sprawling camp, the gateway to the Jaffna peninsula, were forced to flee and at least 300 died in the retreat, several of them due to thirst.

It was the first phase of the LTTE's rolling offensive to recapture the Jaffna peninsula. In the weeks that followed, the LTTE advanced like a military juggernaut into the peninsula, threatening to cut off the thousands of soldiers based at its northern-most tip. At least 150,000 civilians were displaced in the fighting.

A panicky Sri Lanka spent more than Rs. 20 billion on weapons to stave off a humiliating defeat. Due to a combination of reasons, including the new hardware, the security forces managed to tilt the scales, if not completely to their side, at least to a manageable stalemate. Exactly 12 months later, the two sides are closer to talks than ever before in the last six years, and observers believe that last year's pitched battles might have been instrumental in demonstrating that the war is unwinnable for either. ``The Government is conscious that despite pumping in millions for the purchase of weapons, a military victory is not in sight, or to put it plainly, not possible. The response of the international community, particularly the donor community, has also played a role. On the other side, the LTTE has also come in for tremendous international pressure, for which it has postured by agreeing to talks, and calling a ceasefire for four months,'' said Mr. Iqbal Athas, Sri Lanka correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly.

The increased spending on defence created an economic crisis for the country with dropping reserves, pressure on the rupee and a spiralling cost of living. The International Monetary Fund announced on Friday a $253 million bailout package for Sri Lanka, but donors have said that continued assistance will depend on Government moves to end the war.

For the LTTE, the single biggest blow, apart from its inability to roll into Jaffna, has been the ban on it by the U.K., from where it ran its ``international secretariat'' for several years, raising funds and mobilising the Tamil diaspora in the western world for its separatist cause. It was told in no uncertain terms that the international community would not countenance a separate Tamil Eelam, and that a solution to the conflict would have to be found within a united Sri Lanka.

The two sides, pushed by Norway, are now seemingly preparing to talk, but both are accusing the other of being disinterested. For observers, the process seems painfully slow and at times, doomed.The LTTE's representa tive in London, Mr. Anton Balasingham, has in a recent interview reiterated that the Government must reciprocate its ceasefire, and remove an economic embargo on areas controlled by it in northern Sri Lanka, in addition to lifting the ban on it.

Sri Lanka has accused the LTTE of not being sincere about its ceasefire and re-arming, and recruiting more cadres during the four months that the unilateral truce has lasted. The security forces too have bolstered their military capability in this time, buying aircraft and weapons. But those looking for reassurance that the peace process is alive see hope in the continuing presence of Norway.

Unconfirmed reports said Oslo's special envoy, Mr. Erik Solheim, is due back here next week for discussions with the President, Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga. A lot of hope has also been placed in the statement by the Foreign Minister, Mr. Lakshman Kadirgamar, who told Parliament that the government would announce dates and a venue for the talks by the end of this month.

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Section  : International
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