Koizumi emerges front-runner

By F.J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, APRIL 23. The balloting papers have not even been distributed as yet to Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party parliamentary members, but from all unofficially ``declared'' reports from the voting by the party's state-wide workers, it appears the LDP prefers a promised revolution to change than an evolution.

A full day before votes are cast by those entitled to, it is evident that Mr. Junichiro Koizumi (59), will be the mantle bearer of that change. The other two contenders have expressed an inclination to discuss avoiding even the first ballot in the Diet. The former Prime Minister, Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto (63), may even concede before the vote takes place among the LDP's Members of Parliament, even if some of the Hashimoto faction have declared to wish to fight to the end and assert factional strength.

Because of its clear majority in the Lower House, the LDP's leader automatically gets elected as the nations' Prime Minister. Mr. Koizumi will become Japan's 11th Prime Minister since 1989. A formal vote to that position will be taken immediately or soon after Tuesday.

By 10 P.M., with just three prefectures to be counted among 141, Mr. Koizumi had a formidable 123 popular ballots, Mr. Hashimoto 15 and Mr. Kamei just three.

This grassroots based landslide is a huge guarantee for the LDP that it has almost destroyed the chances of the opposition from making dents in the LDP's strength in the polls to the Upper House in late July. The LDP might bolster its position to the point it does not need a coalition unless the LDP's Diet members are so suicidal to the point of defying public opinion and voting down the nation's rank and file LDP expression.

Mr. Koizumi has not always been a keen backer on a coalition with the religious sect Sokka-Gakkai backed New Komeito and another New Conservative party. Until the new Upper House elections in late July, to get legislation through that chamber he will need the practical necessities of the coalition and the factions.

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