Poll scene in Kerala

EVEN WHILE THE political scene in Kerala has been a battle ground between the Congress(I) and the CPI(M), the outcome of polls in the State has depended on the ability of either of the two parties to rope in smaller outfits into their fold. While some such outfits even claim to be mere social platforms - the Nair Service Society (NSS) and the Sri Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP) - there are also such parties as the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the Indian National League (INL) and the various factions of the Kerala Congress (all of them having close ties with the Church) playing a critical role in determining the poll outcome. And this is what renders the May 10 Assembly elections scene in Kerala a complex mosaic.

The run-up to the Assembly polls has been marked by problems within the two leading formations. If the Congress(I) was caught in the public display of animosity between Mr. K. Karunakaran and Mr. A. K. Antony, the CPI(M) too is not free from internal squabbles. Take for instance the factions within the party in Kerala with the ``important'' leaders in the State unit having apportioned the party organisation among themselves at all levels. This is not just a recent development. The trouble within the CPI(M) began with the defeat of Mr. V. S. Achuthanandan in the last elections at Mararikulam, considered a Left citadel; after having managed to establish himself within the party and after having ensured the exit of a large number of his own ``comrades'' from the party, Mr. Achuthanandan is now contesting from yet another bastion of the Left, Malampuzha, far away from his old constituency. That the Left Democratic Front (LDF) has gone overboard in projecting Mr. Achuthanandan as the chief ministerial candidate (and kept out almost all the senior leaders including several members of the Nayanar Cabinet from the elections this time) has to do with the social make-up of Kerala too. There is no way that the Left could persist with denying the top position to a member of the Ezhava community that has been its traditional support base.

The Congress(I) too has a similar problem. A mere perception that Mr. Karunakaran is no longer the ``supreme'' leader of the party in Kerala would lead to an erosion of the party's support base. The fear of a section of the party's traditional support base leaving the fold (as it happened to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and in Bihar) must have led the party high command to mollify Mr. Karunakaran even if that meant changing the party's candidates midstream in at least three Assembly segments. This, however, could not but have had an adverse effect on the Congress(I) organisation, which by all means is now a preserve of Mr. Antony and his camp followers. This factor seems to have blunted the decisive edge of the Congress(I) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) in this election thought they retain the advantage thanks to the anti-incumbency factor. In a State where victory margins have remained very low, anti-incumbency sentiment could indeed be a significant factor.

Be that as it may, there are issues beyond partisan political considerations that are being brought to the centre stage in the course of this poll campaign in Kerala. One such significant issue is the experience with decentralisation and involvement of the people directly in the planning process. The architect of this campaign, Dr. Thomas Issac, is in the fray on behalf of the LDF. And at another level, there are reports of the PDP, an outfit led by Abdul Nasser Madhani, whose activities in the past have not been conducive to the democratic polity, being brought into the ``mainstream'' by sections from within the UDF. Similarly, the CPI(M)'s decision to have an arrangement with the INL, a breakaway group of the IUML, has met with opposition from within the LDF. All these are factors that the leading players on the State's political scene must address and even show the will to introspect at least after the polls.

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