Out of control

Extremist voices on both sides are gaining strength as violence rages in West Asia, says KESAVA MENON.

AS THE uprising in the Palestinian territories rages and the clock runs down on the chances of reversing the situation, the inevitable seems to be happening. The paradigm that was dominant over the past decade - that the Palestinians and the Israelis would somehow stagger towards a resolution of their conflict - is being gradually undermined by the two opposite atavistic urges that have driven the conflict. On the Israeli side, those who want to live by the sword are already dominant and, among the Palestinians, those calling for the total destruction of Israel are becoming all the more strident.

Broadly speaking, there have been two different points of view vying for dominance in Israel. At one end are those who understand that Israel is a Middle Eastern (there are few there who view the region as a part of Asia) country that must eventually come to terms with its neighbours, even though those neighbours might not be the best to be found. Among them there are those who understand that the way to peace is by doing justice to the Palestinians, by meeting their national aspirations to the extent that such a settlement does not jeopardise Israel's own national aspirations. Others might not go so far but do believe that peace can be made if sufficient but reasonable ``concessions'' are made to the Palestinians. Those Israelis who believe in co-existence with the Palestinians on the basis of some degree of equality were shell-shocked when the uprising erupted just after they made what they thought was their best offer. They have subsequently revived and some have re- examined the proposals made at Camp David last year and at Taba to ascertain whether these were really enough to satisfy the Palestinians. A few in the Israeli peace camp, notably the former Interior Minister, Mr. Yossi Beilin, have tried to fine-tune the proposals and begun to re-engage the Palestinians. Unfortunately, they are a minority even within the peace camp. Most of the others in this camp subscribe to the official line, most prominently pronounced by the current Foreign Minister, Mr. Shimon Peres, that negotiations should only begin once the Palestinians wind down their uprising.

Opinion polls even now show that a majority of Israelis still prefer a negotiated settlement. It is not, however, clear whether there has been a shift in support of the kind of ``concessions'' that can be made. However, the polls also show that there is a clear majority in support of the proposition that negotiations should not be re-started till the Palestinians calmed down. In this insistence that the Palestinians make the first move to restore peace lies proof of the innate inability of many Israelis to view them as a people whose narrative and aspirations deserve as much understanding and sympathy as their own.

On the other side of the Israeli spectrum, the denial of the Palestinian aspirations goes much further. From this viewpoint, as some Israeli analysts have themselves noted, Israel is a bastion of the democratic west in an autocratic and unstable region. As stated by the current Prime Minister, Mr. Ariel Sharon, in interviews some time ago, this enjoins Israel to live by the sword and with utter vigilance until the hordes at the gates are finally convinced that Israel is there to stay. The enunciation of such opinions only serves to re-affirm to the Palestinians that they are up against a colonial force and that their struggle is all about national emancipation.

At the official Palestinian level of Mr. Yasser Arafat, the struggle is still about making Israel vacate the territories it conquered in the 1967 war. Even as recently as the observation of the Nakhba (the Catastrophe), as the Palestinians describe the period in May 1948 when they fled or were forced out of their homes, Mr. Arafat spoke of the need for Israel to vacate all the territories captured in the 1967 war. To go by this statement, Mr. Arafat still abides by the major concession he made at the start of the Oslo accords whereby he agreed that Israel could keep that portion of the pre-1948 Palestine that it held before the start of the 1967 war. Mr. Arafat has not reverted to the pre-negotiation Arab slogan that they will free the entire land between the (Jordan) river and the (Mediterranean) sea.

There are many in the Arab world who hope that sheer demographics (the Arab population as a whole is growing much more rapidly than the Jewish) will eventually render realisable their dream of erasing the Jewish state. But there are also Arab and other regional leaders who are not willing to wait on time or the process of nature for the achievement of this objective. Last month, the Government of Iran called a conference of all groups and parties that reject the notion of negotiations with Israel. Specific calls were made for the end of the Zionist entity. Iraq's President, Mr. Saddam Hussein, perhaps the most popular leader on the Arab street currently, is another who lauds this objective. In a recent speech, he said the Palestinians and all Arabs must continue their struggle till the Jews in Israel returned to the lands they had migrated from, including the countries of the Middle East.

Those on either side who reject the legitimacy of the other are still not in full control of the situation or their people. But their voices are gaining strength as the violence in the territories continues.

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