Falling birth rates revive E.U. debate on immigration

By Batuk Gathani

BRUSSELS, MAY 30. Although the declining birth rates and the need to bring in foreign labour to most West European countries in recent months has shifted the debate about the merit of immigration, most Europeans still continue to harbour forebodings about ``hoards of poor East and Central European migrants'' knocking at European Union borders, in the wake of the proposed expansion of the E.U.

For three decades now, in Germany, Britain, France, Italy and even the tiny Benelux countries, centre right politicians have been indulging in the bitter and divisive subject of immigration, role and future of foreigners in European political debate.

The subject has remained emotive and has frequently sparked extreme right violence against ``foreigners'' in which the neo- Nazi gangs play a prominent role. It is not often realised that over a third of the so-called foreigners and immigrants are born in their country of adoption. Hence, legally, if not ethnically, they are indigenous citizens. In Germany as in all other countries in Europe, the issue of immigrants or foreigners has been clouded ``by hypocrisy, dubious use of statistics and political opportunism'' wrote a commentator on Monday.

The E.U. Governments are now expressing serious qualms about admitting new and less affluent member states from Eastern Europe to the union, after years of proclaiming ``historic obligations'' to admit them. The European Governments are worried about maintaining the current high wage structures and social security costs, amid the realisation that an East European worker would be lucky to earn a quarter or one-third of the wage of a worker in the more affluent part of the E.U.

According to current estimates, by mid-2004, the first batch of five East European countries - Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic - could be full members of the E.U. As membership negotiations reach a climax, the current E.U. countries are trying to introduce new demands which highlight their deep misgivings about embarking on a new wave of expansion. For example, it is proposed that the ``free movement of labour'' clause could be freezed for seven years after the new entrants become members of E.U. institutions.

A recent survey reveals that two-thirds of the Germans are still convinced that ``there are too many immigrants seeking entry into Germany and hence Germany's capacity to absorb them has been exhausted.'' All German political parties have cautiously but reluctantly argued that Germany needs new immigrants to sustain its economy in the wake of the fast declining birth rate.

Most Germans have also conveniently forgotten that the post-War German economic miracle was mainly structured by the most coveted and then admired ``guest workers'' from Greece, Turkey, Spain and Portugal.

The current argument is that although Germany is not a ``classical'' immigration country, it may accommodate new workers to maintain its competitiveness in the international market place. In the post-War decades of economic miracle, Germany has attracted some 73 lakh foreign workers to its factories. Today, the country has the largest number of foreign residents in the E.U. If current negative demographic trends continue, it is estimated that Germany's population may decline from the current 80 millions to 75 millions in 2050.

Germany is also short of skilled workers in the high technology sector, but with the prevailing ``racial atmosphere'', it is not likely to attract high skilled workers from Asia. They

would rather head for the greener and more secure pastures of America. The German electronic industry has some 75,000 vacancies but there are few takers.

The East Europeans migrating to major E.U. countries may lack the hi-tech skills and at best can do labour-intensive jobs in the lower ranks of the employment market. Hence, Germany and Austria have spearheaded the move to demand a seven-year ``grace period'' before citizens of new member states can work in existing E.U. countries. This would suggest that the E.U. may adopt different classes of membership.

Many East European countries who in the heydays of the communist rule in Eastern Europe, cherished prospects of the membership of the E.U. are now increasingly disenchanted if not disillusioned with what they see as humiliating entry process. The routine media diet of stories about racism and xenophobia in major E.U. countries does not help. With the collapse of communist rule and the advent of free market economy based on the rule of law and multi-party democracy, most East Europeans would rather live in their own countries and enjoy the fruits of prosperity.

In a curious turn of events, a recent opinion poll in Estonia reveals that the majority of voters oppose joining the E.U. In Poland and the Czech Republic, the number of people rejecting the membership of the E.U. is growing. This is partly attributed to the ``German factor'' as many worry about German economic and cultural dominance. For bureaucrats in the European Commission offices here, all this is rather revealing if not embarrassing.

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