U.P.: A pie up for grabs

That the BJP's popularity has fallen in Uttar Pradesh is there for all to see; but how far will this help its rivals? J. P. Shukla takes a look.

UTTAR PRADESH suffers from endemic caste and communal divisions. And any realignment of political forces is hampered by the personal equations, or their lack, among leaders. The unpopularity of the BJP caused by the failure of its Government to fulfil people's aspirations as also infighting in the party is more than visible. But it is difficult to gauge how far this will affect the BJP or help its rivals.

The results of the recent byelections to the Lok Sabha and the Assembly did give some indication of the direction the wind was blowing in, but they did not give a measure of its velocity. Erosion of the BJP's popularity was there for every one to see. The Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party gained at its cost. But whose gain was greater was difficult to say. A definite conclusion was that the Congress(I) will find it really difficult to revive its fortunes.

The countdown for the next Assembly elections has already started. As their weapons are likely to remain the same, it is only the psychological impact of various developments that the leaders are trying to use.

The Chief Minister, Mr. Rajnath Singh, had reason to be satisfied that the downslide in the BJP's popularity was halted to an extent with his taking over the reins of the State Government. But that perception is fading fast, mainly because of differences between him and the State BJP chief, Mr. Kalraj Mishra. The battle of wits between the two leaders has been on ever since they took charge almost simultaneously.

Mr. Rajnath Singh has tried to play a Kalyan Singh, who as Chief Minister called the shots both in the Government and the party. Mr. Kalyan Singh was different. His stature had grown through the Ram temple movement and he enjoyed a natural popularity among the BJP rank and file. Mr. Kalraj Mishra who was the State BJP president then too instinctively played second fiddle. In the present case, Mr. Mishra does not feel he is second to Mr. Rajnath Singh. And from there arises the conflict. The two were competitors when talk was on to replace Mr. Ram Prakash Gupta as Chief Minister. When the party high command ultimately backed Mr. Singh, Mr. Mishra found it difficult to reconcile himself to the situation.

The BJP has been used to sorting out issues through discussions among its leaders and taking joint decisions. The problem starts when someone occupying an important position tries to assert himself ignoring the principle of collective decision-making. The complaint against Mr. Rajnath Singh is that he never cared to consult the party on matters of governance.

The differences between the two leaders were amply visible in the selection of the party nominee for the byelection to the Rajya Sabha seat vacated by Mr. Rajnath Singh. While Mr. Singh wanted to nominate Mr. Surendranath Awasthi, who had vacated the Hydergath seat for him to enter the Assembly, Mr. Mishra refused to accept the proposition. He felt it was improper for Mr. Singh to decide who should succeed him in the Rajya Sabha; selection of the candidate being a party matter.

Similar differences have been visible on a number of occasions - over holding of kisan panchayats, police firing on farmers at Babatpur in Varanasi, ban on the SIMI and the manner in which Government concessions were granted to various sections of society.

Aware of the dangers posed by this acrimony, the BJP high command is worried. There are reports that the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, had discussed the situation with his confidant and the State Minister for Urban Development, Mr. Lalji Tandon, during his recent vacation in Himachal Pradesh. The two squabbling leaders are now likely to be called to New Delhi to sort out their differences.

The Samajwadi Party leader, Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, is naturally elated at the gains that his party has made at the cost of both the BJP and the Congress(I), as visible in the Shahjehanpur Lok Sabha byelection. He has also been trying to make a lot of the People's Front floated in association with the communist parties. In the context of Uttar Pradesh, however, the P.F. is just another name for the Samajwadi Party, the communists having only a namesake presence in the State. But it will certainly give a psychological boost to the Samajwadi Party's political campaign.

The positioning of the non-BJP players, however, by and large remains static mainly because of the personal bitterness between Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav and the BSP leader, Ms. Mayawati. Dalits have formed the main support-base of the BSP and no change in the situation is likely, in the near future.

The only realignment taking place in the State is the growing understanding between the BJP and the Lok Dal leader, Mr. Ajit Singh. This may be of some help to both the parties in western Uttar Pradesh.

Talk of the revival of the Congress(I) in this overall context appears to be of no significance. The party has also indicated its willingness to ally with non-BJP forces in the State but there are few takers for the moment.

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Section  : Opinion
Previous : Valley voices
Next     : Divided on a separation