Europe awaits Bush-Putin summit

By C. Raja Mohan

LONDON, JUNE 8. As the American President, Mr. George W. Bush, prepares for his first visit to Europe next week, there is speculation here on the prospects for an understanding between the U.S. and Russia on nuclear reductions and missile defences.

Mr. Bush, who will spend a full working week in Europe starting Monday, will cap his visit with a substantive engagement with the Russian President, Mr. Vladimir Putin, at Ljubljana in Slovenia.

Security specialists in Britain emphasise the crucial importance of Russia in shaping the eventual European approach to the controversial American plans to build missile defences.

Getting Russia onboard, they believe, would help weaken the strong European opposition to U.S. plans.

They are pleased that the Bush administration has dropped its initial hostility towards Russia and is reaching out to Mr. Putin.

But few are willing to bet on an ``early deal'' between the two leaders on missile defences.

Russia has sharply criticised the U.S. plans to build defences and rejected suggestions for any modification of the bilateral Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty.

The 1972 treaty severely restricts the testing and development of defences against missiles. Russia, however, has been ready to engage the U.S. on the subject.

The assessment here is that Mr. Bush may be seeking more than a deal on missile defences with Mr. Putin - a new cooperative relationship with Moscow.

Analysts here argue that Russia has reasons to seek a basic transformation of its relationship with the U.S. and the West.

But they suggest that Mr. Putin may also want to drive a very hard bargain on missile defences.

Besides getting a measure of his Russian counterpart, Mr. Bush is expected to outline his vision of a new relationship with Russia and make a pitch for Russian support for his missile defence initiative.

The U.S. media has speculated that Mr. Bush might offer many ``sweeteners'' to the Russian leader to accept a revision of the ABM treaty and facilitate the development of new defensive technologies.

These may include a new political relationship, economic assistance, purchase of Russian arms and equipment and joint development of new technologies. But there is no certainty that Mr. Putin will bite.

Skeptics of a potential Russo-American deal on missile defences point to the complex domestic political dynamics in Russia, in particular the resurgent anti-American sentiments.

They also wonder whether Washington has the patience to handle Moscow's desire to preserve the old symbolism of political parity with the U.S.

There are widespread political apprehensions in Europe, including Britain, on the U.S. plans for missile defences.

Even the British Government, the most loyal of the U.S. allies, has been unwilling to give it a ringing endorsement.

But informed sources here point to three attractive features of the Bush initiative in comparison to plans for missile defences unveiled earlier by the Clinton administration.

Unlike the Clinton proposals, the Bush initiative does not see missile defences as a ``purely national'' plan and wishes to include American ``friends and allies'' in Europe and Asia.

Europeans also welcome the decision by Mr. Bush to consult Russia.

Finally, they are pleased that the Bush administration is offering a ``flexible architecture'' for missile defences and not a pre-determined plan as Mr. Clinton did.

Many other questions - including funding, technology choice, command and control, and rules on sharing of technology sharing - will have to be sorted out before the Europeans back the Bush initiative.

During the week-long trip to Europe, Mr. Bush is expected to bring greater clarity to his ideas on missile defences and their role in the proposals for a new global security framework.

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Section  : International
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