Hopes and fears on Kashmir

By Rajindar Sachar

THE INVITATION to General Pervez Musharraf by the Government of India has naturally raised intense speculation as to the motivation and the results that might follow. I wish the ceasefire had been allowed to continue; but one can understand the embarrassing position the Government of India was forced into by the total repudiation of the ceasefire by the militants and also the pusillanimous reaction of the Hurriyat Conference leaders who went along with the militants in not responding to the invitation for talks by Mr. K. C. Pant. The Centre, however, must ensure that the withdrawal of the ceasefire does not lead to excesses by security forces.

With the start of Indo-Pakistan talks, the Kashmir problem will have a more definitive and hopefully more substantial grounding. Till now, because of the lack of any clear opening, the APHC was playing games and pretending to hold the key to open the lock of Pakistani intransigence. That bluff has now been called. Even Pakistan accepts that in talks between Heads of Government, the APHC is an unwelcome interloper. For this public humiliation, the APHC has only itself to blame. It made the mistake of assuming that India would never invite Pakistan for talks and that if it did the latter would insist on the Hurriyat Conference's presence at the table. But that bubble was bound to burst - the APHC forgot that for nations there are no permanent friends or enemies but only permanent interests.

I am surprised that the APHC has been showing such a lack of realism as not to realise that however long the solution may be in coming, no Government in India or for that matter in Pakistan could agree to independence for Kashmir. Ultimately, however it is camouflaged, both Governments will have to accept what was accepted by Bhutto in 1971 at the Shimla Talks - namely the LoC (Line of Control) as the border with some adjustments even a little more favourable to Pakistan, as Nehru was willing to concede some time in 1963-64, but unfortunately his death quashed that opportunity.

Where does the Hurriyat Conference with its self-inflicted wound fit in? Nowhere, I am afraid. It is doubtful if the APHC ever had a mass base. A disparate group, it, by a quirk of circumstances, was broadly seen to reflect the anger and dissatisfaction with the security forces and the Centre. It had no agenda, no mass programme. Take for example, Mr. Lone's remarks that when General Musharraf comes to India, the Hurriyat will be meeting him (which will serve the same purpose as a visit by an APHC delegation to Pakistan). This suggestion I would have thought would be embarrassing to General Musharraf. But surprisingly, I find that Pakistan's Foreign Minister has also come out with a similar suggestion (obviously as a morale-booster for the Hurriyat Conference) but which he should have known will hardly be seen in diplomatic circles as a friendly act - it will be like if Mr. Vajpayee during his Lahore visit had wanted to give a private audience to the MQM leader, Mr. Altaf Hussain.

But if in spite of everything the General does express a wish to meet the APHC leaders, (the initiative should be his and not the Hurriyat conference's), the Government of India should not raise any objection, in deference to our ancient tradition of extending all courtesies to invited guests. In the context, I must compliment Mr. Shabir Shah for having read the situation better. I still wish the Hurriyat conference would take an independent initiative, undeterred by the militant threat, to join in the Pant talks and set an agenda for improving the conditions in the State.

We, of course, should expect no immediate solution. There will be the usual sparks in the early stage. But once both sides realise that mutual hostility will be our ruination, it is hoped better sense will prevail to consider in depth all matters of trade, and goodwill and certainly Kashmir. It is well known in trade circles that thousands of crores of rupees worth of trade is being illegally transacted between India and Pakistan through Nepal and Dubai, denying to both Governments legitimate taxes.

Numerous mutually beneficial results will accrue if we settle our differences. We both are victims of the WTO manoeuverings and globalisation. A big challenge which India is facing is with regard to the pressure being mounted by MNCs to have our patent legislation amended like they got done in Pakistan. How both countries would benefit if we were to work together was highlighted in the September, 1996, ``Pakistan Network'' newsletter which said Pakistani consumers could have saved over Rs. one billion on only nine medicines in 1995 if the companies had offered the same price as in India.

It is wrong to treat Jammu and Kashmir as a problem of Kashmiri Muslims as some in the Pakistani media do. The Kashmir problem is the concern of all three regions - the valley, Jammu and Ladakh. Any stance based on communal considerations must be totally ruled out as it can only bring misery and weaken secularism in our country. It may suit Pakistan to communalise the situation. But Pakistan must recognise that any proposal for trifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir would be a non-starter. This solution would be a challenge to the secular base of our Republic and has already been repudiated by all political parties.

I know the goons of the VHP and some misguided elements of the Sangh Parivar may also wish to communalise the solution to serve their larger goal of fighting against secularism. But such attempts will be stoutly resisted.

Both Pakistan and India must stop playing to the gallery of hawks - witness Pakistan talking of plebiscite when even the U.N. Secretary General has ruled it out and the External Affairs Minister resurrecting the old resolution by Parliament on Jammu and Kashmir. More sobriety is required.

There is also valid criticism from the Opposition parties of being ignored in these talks. The Government should rectify it by involving them to arrive at a national consensus. General Musharraf would then know that there is unanimity on this national agenda so that waiting further to find a permanent solution will be of no use.

People in both the countries yearn for peace. The Indian delegation which went to Pakistan to attend the World Punjabi Conference came back with praise for the friendly and warm regard shown by Pakistanis, notwithstanding the somewhat shrill note by some sections of the media. Both India and Pakistan need to be reminded of the sombre words of Brutus in Shakespeare's Julius Caesar: ``there is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; omitted, all the voyage of their life, is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat; and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.''

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