Will Bush play the Russia card?

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, JUNE 15. There is only one man who can salvage what from all indications has been a disastrous maiden political venture into Europe for the U.S. President, Mr. George W. Bush. And that man is his Russian counterpart, Mr. Vladimir Putin.

If their first encounter develops nicely at Ljubljana (read Lyublyana), in the Balkan republic of Slovenia tomorrow, it could go down as the summit which set the tone for the geopolitics of the 21st century. Together the two leaders could begin writing the rules for a new nuclear order and unveil a huge power shift in global politics.

Some in America see it as a potential political equivalent of the President, Richard Nixon's visit to China in the early 1970s. Then Washington played the China card against Moscow. Now, the U.S. may want to trump China with the Russia card.

But there is a big, a very big, if out there. The meeting with Mr. Putin could turn out to be path-breaking one if Mr. Bush can entice the former into cutting a political deal on missile defences. The large demonstrations against Mr. Bush, the reluctance of leading West European governments to extend political cover to the U.S. leader on missile defences, and the contemptuous attitude of the European media towards the U.S. President have shaped a major diplomatic defeat for the new administration. However, a good personal rapport and the suggestion of the contours of a future understanding with Mr. Putin could transform the international perceptions of Mr. Bush's European sojourn. Mr. Bush is determined to charm Mr. Putin. The U.S. insists Russia is no longer an adversary but a partner in creating a new global strategic framework.

Key to success

Russia, indeed, holds the key to the success of Mr. Bush's initiative. Mr. Putin can make it easy for the U.S. to develop new defensive technologies by agreeing to dilute, modify or tear up the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty which severely limits missile defences. Mr. Putin's backing can undercut the arguments of the domestic and foreign critics of the Bush administration's plans for missile defences.

Is Mr. Putin ready cut a deal? He hasn't said yes or no. But he is eager to negotiate and bargain hard. And coming from a successful meeting with the Chinese President, Mr. Jiang Zemin, in Shanghai this week, Mr. Putin has expanded his political leverages.

No one believes Messrs Bush and Putin will be able to cut a deal on a subject as complex as missile defences at their two-hour meeting tomorrow. The Ljubljana encounter will record the first conversation between the two on a prospective political accommodation.

As Mr. Bush lays out his vision of a new relationship with Russia, there could be hints about what is on offer to Mr. Putin in return for his cooperation on missile defences.

Mr. Putin wants to prolong the bargaining process, maximise his leverage and ensure he is not short-changed. To succeed, Mr. Bush will have to tempt Mr. Putin at Ljubljana into declaring at least a political commitment to negotiate a common security framework.

Crucial markers

A few big markers could reveal if there is an agreement to explore a grand bargain at Ljubljana. An assertion of American readiness to respect the special Russian position on global security issues and a credible programme of U.S. economic and technological cooperation with Russia would indeed be crucial. Equally important would be the outlines of a framework that within a reasonable time-frame will bring about big reductions in their nuclear arsenals, a joint assessment of the nature of the missile threats and the technological options to deal with them, and the room for an eventual modification of the ABM treaty.

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