A declaration may suit Musharraf

By K.K. Katyal

NEW DELHI, JUNE 19. Will there be a New Delhi Declaration or a joint statement or separate statements on the conclusion of the India- Pakistan summit around the middle of next month? It will depend on the outcome of the discussions between the two top leaders, Mr A.B. Vajpayee, and the Pakistan Chief Executive, Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

A declaration should suit the Pakistani ruler, for that would help supersede the Lahore document, with which was associated the ousted Prime Minister, Mr. Nawaz Sharif, and substitute it by an updated version, bearing the Musharraf stamp.

But that could be possible only if the General finds an advance in it on the Lahore formulations.

The Pakistani ruling establishment has been spelling out its ideas of an improvement. Gen. Musharraf is on record as having stated that Kashmir was mentioned in the Lahore Declaration at his instance, suggesting that Mr. Nawaz Sharif, in his talks with Mr. Vajpayee, had agreed to a diluted reference to the core issue.

The present regime would like the centrality of Kashmir to be recognised, the issue treated as a ``dispute'' and efforts made to resolve it.

The Pakistani side draws comfort from the reference to Kashmir in Mr. Vajpayee's invitation to their Chief Executive, saying this was the first such mention in a letter from that level, though the issue had figured in joint documents (at Shimla, Lahore etc.).

The Lahore Declaration committed the two sides to dialogue on ``all issues, including Kashmir'', the present military regime's preference will be for ``Kashmir and other issues''. Whether and if so, in what form, a mutually acceptable formulation is evolved is to be seen.

As has been known, India is keen on a qualitative change in the bilateral relationship, on a new order in the sub- continent, that could help the two countries address the issues of poverty and under-development.

This will entail consideration of the outstanding problems and New Delhi would not be that unrealistic as not to recognise the importance of tackling Kashmir.

Whether it is called the composite dialogue or whether it is 2+6 - one, security, including confidence-building measures and, two, Jammu and Kashmir, and six other issues, agreed to be considered by the two sides in 1997 and or any other description, it essentially boils down to the requisite will to reverse the course of unhappy events. That India was keen on it was implied in the fact of Mr. Vajpayee's invitation.

Islamabad should have reasons to be happy at the Indian initiative - because it takes care of Gen. Musharraf's main grievance, his strong sense of hurt, arising out of New Delhi's reluctance to talk to him for almost a year-and-a-half, thus denying him recognition and not accepting the legitimacy of his regime.

But the earlier assessment that the changed Indian attitude may make a difference to his mindset, in dealing with his country's problems with India has to be revised.

This is the meaning of the messages conveyed by his latest statements and the writings in the newspapers.

To say this is not to minimise the significance of the summit but to make a case for not entertaining too high expectations.

The two leaders may not be able to make a dent into the major problems, but they may set in motion an engagement process - structured or informal, it is very difficult to say - which will be a positive departure from the present situation, marked by intense recriminations. And if the post-summit phase leads to symbolic but concrete steps - decline in the terrorist violence and the consequent reduction in the Indian military forces in Jammu and Kashmir, it would be a major gain.

The signals from Pakistan are mixed. India, both the Government and the non-official sections, would do well not to get euphoric on moderate statements of the type made by the General in his address on the Prophet's birthday, and not to be dismayed by extreme observations of the type made in the ``face the nation'' programme on the television - but to show confidence and patience in their reactions.

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Section  : National
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