Playing Pakistan's man of destiny

A PRECISE TIMING by Gen. Pervez Musharraf to anoint himself as Pakistan's President has attracted worldwide attention. He argues that the call of supreme national interest can no longer remain unheeded. But the most bandied theory is that he may have wanted the outward legitimacy of a constitutional civilian office so as to be able to play the equal at a prospective summit with the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, in Agra next month. However, Pakistan's historical experiments with military rule and civilian-democratic governments reveal that Gen. Musharraf requires no aura of a perceived civilian position to deal with India. New Delhi had only recently taken into account the larger calculus of power in Pakistan before inviting him for talks in his status as that country's Chief Executive - a position which he will continue to hold besides being the supreme functional commander of the armed forces. Now, Gen. Musharraf has not shown himself to be very different from Pakistan's previous military dictators in seeking the symbolism and substance of an absolute monopoly of power. Given the feeble criticism within Pakistan about his lack of governing legitimacy to engage New Delhi in discussions over fundamental disputes, he appears to have calculated that his impending visit to India could be seen by others as the definitive context for his assertion of an absolute hold over his country. In a political sense peculiar to the dynamics of India-Pakistan equations at different levels, he should have known, though, that his core status in Islamabad was already acknowledged by New Delhi through its recent invitation to him for talks.

Yet, if the international community feels outraged over Gen. Musharraf's perceived attempt to equate himself with the Pakistani state, he has erred in his calculations. He may not have bargained for the indignant reaction from the United States. Washington's acute sense of disappointment and concern over Gen. Musharraf's latest act of self- empowerment flows from the belief that he is taking yet another turn away from the path to genuine democracy. Moreover, Gen. Musharraf has run the risk of undermining the expanding foundations of his evolving foreign policy. In some obvious diplomatic mismanagement, Pakistan has not taken the U.S. into confidence about Gen. Musharraf's anti- democracy action. Significantly, his Foreign Minister, Mr. Abdul Sattar, could have easily done so during the meetings he held with top American interlocutors in Washington prior to the event that unfolded in Islamabad. Given the state of India-Pakistan ties, it is a different matter whether or not Mr. Vajpayee was duly informed by Gen. Musharraf about his own imminent plan of becoming President and dissolving defunct Assemblies when he received a call from the Indian leader. Gen. Musharraf has spoilt his diplomatic copy-book in some manner at a critical moment in his quest for an international rating as a man of peace.

The implications of Gen. Musharraf's latest action for Pakistan's political evolution can be profound. The exit of a moderate President - Mr. Rafiq Tarar, whom Gen. Musharraf has now replaced - may not be lamented at this time when the military ruler is actually sending out signals about his intention to distance politics from religion (especially, religious extremism). But a message of realpolitik is that Gen. Musharraf wants to remain in power beyond the promised transition to a new democratic set-up. His transparent aim is to transform his present rule by decrees into a future rule of law on his own terms. He feels emboldened by the fact that former civilian leaders like Ms. Benazir Bhutto and Mr. Nawaz Sharif, both lacking credibility, remain unable to rally a genuine pro-democracy movement at this stage. The need of the hour is some creative thinking by Pakistan's pro-democracy campaigners. Arguably, a factor favouring a democratic alternative to the latest imperious presidency is the somewhat cyclical history of Pakistan accepting military rule and civilian `democracy'.

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