Political climate in Uttar Pradesh

AFTER A BRIEF lull, the political atmosphere in Uttar Pradesh is warming up. While the Samajwadi Party led by Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav had begun preparations for the Assembly elections, due by March 2002, the BJP too has now kicked off its preparations with a meeting of its Uttar Pradesh unit leaders at Sahranpur recently. And with this, there is bound to be a substantive warming up of the political scenario in the State in the coming days. Of significance in this context is the initial sign of a tie-up between the BJP and Mr. Ajit Singh, whose influence in the western districts of the State has been considerable in the past. It may be true that the BJP had made some inroads into the region and had managed to cut into the Jat votebank in the past few elections. The long tradition of anti-Congressism among the Jat peasantry consolidated from the days of Choudhry Charan Singh was the basis on which the BJP had managed to expand in the western districts. But then, the BJP's expansion in this region was restricted as long as Mr. Ajit Singh was there fighting on his own steam. It is in this context that the moves to strike an understanding with Mr. Ajit Singh assumes significance. It may be true that Mr. Ajit Singh was hardly able to hold on to the Charan Singh legacy in full and he himself was defeated from the Bagpat constituency in the 1998 Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP in Uttar Pradesh has suffered a substantial erosion of its base and it is in this context that its leaders are keen on a tie-up with any leader or party. Apart from the losses it suffered after the exit of Mr. Kalyan Singh, the BJP State unit cannot afford to gloss over the adverse effect of the virtual anarchy that has come to symbolise its Government in Uttar Pradesh. The jumbo-Ministry that it agreed to constitute in the State (just in order to manage a majority in the Assembly) had taken its toll with several members of the Cabinet having reduced their position as Ministers to mere instruments of self- preservation. And even after the party's high command sent Mr. Rajnath Singh to replace an ineffective Mr. R. P. Gupta as Chief Minister, nothing seems to have changed insofar as the administration is concerned. The BJP's desperation to seek allies before the March 2002 polls arises out of this crisis of its own making. And it is clear now that the party is making all efforts to rekindle communal passions in the State - as is evident from the statements by its leaders before the Justice Liberhan Commission of Enquiry - with a view to turning the poll discourse in the State to sectarian passions. It is this game that raises concern.

Be that as it may, the state of affairs on the other side of the political spectrum in Uttar Pradesh is not all that simple. It may be true that Mr. Mulayam Singh and his Samajwadi Party had managed to not just hold their ground but even been able to grow across the State. After having won in as many as 27 Lok Sabha constituencies in the 1999 Lok Sabha polls, Mr. Mulayam Singh seems to have built a party organisation across the State. But then, the Samajwadi Party cannot ignore the strong support base that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) retains in Uttar Pradesh. And as long as the two parties refuse to get together, they cannot take on the BJP effectively. And as for the Congress(I), there are hardly any signs of the party having consolidated the gains that came its way in the immediate wake of Ms. Sonia Gandhi taking over as party president. There are no signs of any party organisation in place and this leaves the Congress(I) in Uttar Pradesh in the same position as it was in 1996. All these factors are integral to the Uttar Pradesh political scene but there are many imponderables still and new alliances too may be in the making.

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Section  : Opinion
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