Indo-Pak. talks: an air of pessimism

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, JULY 7. A week before Gen. Pervez Musharraf arrives here for talks with the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, an air of pessimism is beginning to creep up on the expectations from the Agra summit. The inexplicably harsh statement from Pakistan on Kashmir last night and the insistence of Gen. Musharraf to meet the Hurriyat leaders are forcing a reconsideration of the initial assessment here that a modest but positive outcome is indeed possible at Agra.

Despite the ``unexpected provocations'' from across the border, informed sources here insist that the Government ``will not rush into a negative mode'' on the prospects for the Agra summit. As they digest the sudden hardening of Pakistan's rhetoric on Kashmir, policy-makers are suspending, for the moment at least, the initial cautious optimism.

Within the Government, the sources said, there never was any euphoria about the impending talks with Gen. Musharraf. But there were expectations nevertheless that the relationship with Pakistan could be steered in a positive direction and a road map for cooperative bilateral engagement could be drawn. India was also signalling that it was ready to give a special focus to the dispute on Kashmir at the Agra talks, if that is what Gen. Musharraf wants to show as a political gain to be able to move towards a normal relationship with India. It is in this context that the gratuitous attack on Indian policies in Jammu and Kashmir yesterday by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Pakistan has perplexed New Delhi.

That the Pakistan Foreign Office has chosen to launch a sharp attack on Indian armed forces without any apparent provocation has set analysts here scrambling to explain the logic behind the statement. The Government is yet to come to a judgment on the possible motivations and internal political dynamics behind this late night salvo from Pakistan Foreign Office. Whatever the reason, India is taking note of the renewed vehemence in the statements on Kashmir from Pakistan and assessing them with care, sources said.

The sudden outburst from Pakistan is likely to strengthen the hands of those who have been highly skeptical of engaging Pakistan and Gen. Musharraf.

Segments of the Indian policy establishment here had been cautioning against the assessment that Gen. Musharraf is prepared to walk the ``high road'' along with Mr. Vajpayee to peace and prosperity in the subcontinent.

They disagree with the suggestion that Gen. Musharraf is battling the hardliners in Pakistan and needs political cover on Kashmir to normalise ties with India. Instead they argue that an uncomplicated reading of all that Gen. Musharraf has said in recent days suggests he is no different from the other Pakistani hardliners on Kashmir.

Meanwhile the BJP leadership and the Union Home Minister Mr. L.K. Advani are already responding in kind to the statements from Pakistan.

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